Japan’s ruling party faces historic leadership choice

Japan’s long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is on the brink of a historic political moment, poised to select either the country’s first female prime minister or the youngest leader since the 19th century. The leadership contest, analysed in a recent Financial Times article, comes amid mounting challenges for the LDP, which has ruled Japan for all but a handful of the past 70 years. The outcome could redefine the party’s direction as it seeks to regain public trust and parliamentary dominance.

The race formally began on  September 22, with five candidates vying for leadership, but political analysts, domestic media polling, and multiple LDP members point to two frontrunners: Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi. Takaichi, a hardline conservative in her 60s, has cited the late UK leader Margaret Thatcher as an inspiration.

Over a 32-year career, she has held numerous senior government posts and previously oversaw the “Cool Japan” policy, which leveraged Japanese culture to enhance the nation’s international influence. Her rival, Shinjiro Koizumi, is the 44-year-old agriculture minister and son of former reformist Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Known for his public relations stunts, he surfed the Fukushima coast in 2023 to demonstrate safety post-tsunami, symbolizing his hands-on approach.

The contest reflects a deeper strategic dilemma within the LDP. Analysts note the party is torn between reclaiming conservatives who defected to harder-line parties and appealing to younger, more reform-minded voters under Koizumi, who is six years younger than Japan’s median age of 50.1 years.

“The party knows that in order to win back its majorities in parliament, it will have to hold a general election sooner or later, and it will need to win,” said one sitting LDP MP. “More than other leadership contests, this is about the survival of the party.”

Outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s brief 11-month tenure saw the LDP lose control of both houses of parliament, forcing cooperation with smaller parties. His sudden resignation this month triggered the current leadership race, which will be decided on October 4 through a combined vote of LDP MPs and supporters. Unlike in previous years, the party’s ability to automatically install a prime minister is now less certain.

“This year’s leadership election has been fundamentally reshaped by the reality of minority government,” said Tobias Harris, founder of the Japan Foresight research group.

Both frontrunners have focused on economic pledges while largely avoiding emotive issues. Takaichi, a devotee of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, declared “Japan is back” and vowed to make the country “once again a vigorous land of the rising sun.”

She promised “responsible, aggressive and wise spending,” cash handouts, and income tax deductions, ruling out a consumption tax cut. Analysts have noted that she appears more pragmatic than in last year’s race, moving toward a moderate stance.

Yu Uchiyama, a political scientist at Tokyo University, observed, “Takaichi is becoming more moderate and has stopped articulating her hawkishness. Meanwhile Koizumi seems to be hiding his reformist position and views on deregulation. Both candidates are getting closer to the moderate position.”

Koizumi has focused on wage growth and economic reform, proposing an overhaul of the income tax system, large public investments, and raising average wages by ¥1mn by 2030. He also pledged tighter controls over land purchases by foreigners, reflecting concerns raised by populist parties.

“I will reunite the LDP, and move politics forward,” Koizumi said. 

By Sabina Mammadli