Kremlin concerned about deteriorating relations with Armenia Analysis by Institute for Study of War

Russia's continued efforts to rally Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) member countries around an imagined confrontation with the West likely stems from Russian concerns about the CSTO's longevity as a vector for Russian influence. 

Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov addressed a meeting of the CSTO Council of Defence Ministers in Almaty, Kazakhstan on May 31 and claimed that a tense situation in Eastern Europe and an alleged NATO military buildup threaten the security of CSTO members, Caliber.Az reports citing the message posted on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Belousov alleged that the US and its allies are a destabilising geopolitical force and that NATO countries seek to strengthen their positions in the Caucasus and gain access to resources in the Caspian Sea and direct access to Central Asia. 

Belousov warned that the West has unleashed an information war and sanctions against CSTO members to undermine the organisation.

He stated that Russia is specifically concerned about alleged US and NATO plans to involve nominal CSTO member Armenia in the West's sphere of interest.

Armenia has effectively ceased participation in the CSTO.

The Kremlin is likely concerned that deteriorating relations with Armenia could prompt other CSTO members to question the utility of their CSTO membership.

Recent tensions in the Russian-Tajik relationship following the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack and Central Asian concerns about the impacts of secondary sanctions may be incentivising the Kremlin to intensify efforts to convince CSTO members that the organization and their involvement in other Russian-led multilateral organisations is worthwhile.

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are unlikely to buy into the Kremlin's imagined geopolitical confrontation with the West, and the Kremlin will likely have to offer more concrete promises to maintain the CSTO as a viable collective security organisation oriented around Russian interests.

Belousov met with Tajikistani Defence Minister Sherali Mirzo in a bilateral meeting on May 31 and stressed that the CSTO will address the escalating situation on the CSTO's southern border. Belousov claimed that the situation in Afghanistan and the threat of terrorism remain the main sources of instability in Central Asia.

Russia is currently considering delisting the Taliban as a prohibited organisation and will likely strengthen cooperation with the Taliban to combat the Islamic State’s Afghan branch IS-Khorasan (IS-K), which conducted the Crocus City Hall attack.

IS-K recruited Tajikistani citizens for the Crocus City Hall attack, and Tajikistan likely views multilateral counterterrorism operations as a way to repair strained relations with Russia while also combating transnational terrorist threats emanating from Afghanistan.

Other Central Asian states, including CSTO members Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, likely view Russian offers for counterterrorism cooperation as attractive benefits of continued security relations with Russia.