NATO on alert: Denmark warns Russia could be ready for war in five years

A new intelligence report by the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) has outlined growing concerns over the Russian Federation’s military readiness, suggesting that Moscow could be prepared to engage in a full-scale war with NATO within the next five years.

The February 11 declassified report highlights Russia’s ongoing military expansion and the increasing likelihood of conflict with the North Atlantic Alliance, per Caliber.Az.

The DDIS assessment points to the Kremlin's efforts to rebuild its Armed Forces to match NATO's capabilities, with significant financial and material support from China, North Korea, and Iran.

According to the DDIS, the Kremlin is actively strengthening its military position but has yet to decide whether to initiate full-scale hostilities against NATO. The report notes, however, that Russia is working to expand its military capabilities in a way that would keep this option open.

Russia’s willingness to escalate conflict with NATO could depend on the military response from European countries. The DDIS suggests that if NATO countries fail to sufficiently bolster their defence capabilities in response to Russia's growing military strength, the Kremlin may become more inclined to risk confrontation.

In terms of military spending, Britain's International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported on February 12 that European countries collectively spent $457 billion on defence in 2024, while Russia’s defence budget stood at $462 billion, underscoring the growing imbalance in military capabilities.

The DDIS report emphasizes that while Russia is currently avoiding actions that could trigger NATO’s Article 5, which requires mutual self-defence among Alliance members, the Kremlin may take greater risks if it perceives a shift in the balance of power in its favour. Russia’s willingness to attack NATO could increase if the Alliance is seen as weakened militarily or politically, particularly if US military support for Europe is doubted.

The DDIS also outlines potential scenarios for escalating military threats from Russia should the conflict in Ukraine end. The assessment suggests that the military threat from Russia could evolve as follows:

• Within six months, Russia could initiate a local war against a neighbouring state outside of Ukraine.
• Within two years, Russia could pose a credible military threat to NATO countries in the Baltic region.
• Within five years, assuming NATO does not rearm at the same pace as Russia, Moscow could be prepared for a large-scale war in Europe.

These findings align closely with an assessment from the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which also underscores Russia's ongoing efforts to restructure its military and society in preparation for a future conflict with NATO.

By Tamilla Hasanova