Nuclear arms control era ends as US-Russia treaty nears deadline

The era of nuclear arms control is approaching a critical turning point this week as the New START treaty, the final legal constraint on the deployed arsenals of the US and Russia, is set to lapse, according to the Financial Times (FT).

The New START treaty, which limits the number of active missiles and warheads held by the world’s two largest nuclear powers, will expire on February 5.

With negotiations for a follow-up agreement showing little promise, this development could usher in a new period of high-stakes atomic competition.

“I genuinely believe we are now at the threshold of a new arms race,” said James Acton, co-director of the nuclear policy programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

In this context, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, cautioned that the world should be concerned if the New START treaty ends without a replacement, as it would mark the first time since the early 1970s that the largest nuclear powers faced no formal limits.

"I don't want to say that this immediately means a catastrophe and a nuclear war will begin, but it should still alarm everyone," Medvedev emphasised.

Experts warn that the expiration of New START could trigger a new arms race. The United States and Russia together hold about 86% of the world’s nuclear arsenal, while China is actively expanding its nuclear capabilities, further complicating the prospects for future agreements

New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) was signed on April 8, 2010, in Prague by US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and entered into force in 2011 to continue decades‑long efforts to limit their strategic nuclear forces.  

The treaty set formal caps on deployed strategic warheads and delivery systems and included verification measures like inspections and data exchanges to build transparency and predictability between the two nuclear powers.

It also limits each side to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and a combined total of 700 deployed delivery vehicles (ICBMs, SLBMs, heavy bombers) from an overall cap of 800 deployed and non‑deployed launchers, and uses actual warhead counts rather than earlier counting rules to more accurately reflect arsenals.

New START entered force as part of a strategic relationship between Washington and Moscow and was extended for five years in 2021, but its verification regime has been weakened by the suspension of mutual inspections in recent years amid geopolitical tensions, including over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

By Jeyhun Aghazada