POLITICO: European Commission expects EU states to back €210 billion Ukraine loan

The European Commission expects Germany, France, and Italy to bear the bulk of guarantees as EU countries individually pledge billions of euros to secure a €210 billion urgent loan to Ukraine funded by frozen Russian assets.

According to documents obtained by POLITICO, guarantee amounts are calculated based on each country’s gross national income, with Germany likely responsible for the largest share of around €51.3 billion, France €34 billion, and Italy €25.1 billion.

These guarantees are expected to secure Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s agreement to the loan.

The proposed reparations loan allocates €115 billion to support Ukraine’s defence industry over the next five years, with an additional €50 billion set aside for Kyiv’s budgetary requirements. The remaining €45 billion from the total package would go toward repaying a G7 loan extended to Ukraine last year.

According to the Commission’s presentations, the funds would be released in six instalments throughout the year.

Measures would be implemented to ensure transparency and prevent misuse of funds. For defence spending, this includes verifying that contracts and expenditure plans meet the Commission’s standards.

The Commission would also specify Ukraine’s financing needs and map out sources of military and financial aid, enabling EU capitals to monitor the flow of funds to Kyiv.

Earlier reports indicated that the EC had sent EU countries legal proposals to expropriate all €210 billion of Russian central bank sovereign assets blocked in the EU to fund Ukraine in 2026–2027, a plan Belgium strongly opposes.

Valérie Urbain, head of Belgium’s Euroclear depository where most of Russia’s blocked assets are held, called the EC’s plan unrealistic and warned of massive risks for both Belgium and the global financial system, saying it could lead to Euroclear’s bankruptcy. She confirmed plans to challenge the measure in court if EU leaders approve it at the December 18–19 summit.

About €210 billion in Russian sovereign assets are blocked in Europe, with €185 billion held at Euroclear. The locations of the remaining €25 billion have not been officially disclosed by the EC or EU countries.

By Jeyhun Aghazada