Sri Lanka’s Central Asia gambit

Sri Lanka's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in collaboration with The Geopolitical Cartographer, a Colombo-based think tank, hosted a forum on Central Asia. The forum, held in two sessions—one on transport and logistics and the other on economic ties—was overseen by the ministry’s Central Asia and South-East Asia Affairs Division.

The event was attended by academics, diplomats, and officials, including Foreign Minister Ali Sabry, Caliber.Az reports per foreign media.

This forum follows a series of consultations Sri Lanka has held with Central Asian nations in 2023 and 2024, including recent discussions with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. 

During these consultations, Sri Lanka and Kazakhstan agreed to establish embassies in each other’s countries. Currently, Sri Lanka is represented in Central Asia through its embassies in India, Pakistan, and Russia.

Sri Lanka’s Strategic Interest in Central Asia

Colombo’s interest in Central Asia is not new. Between 2011 and 2021, Sri Lanka engaged with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, building diplomatic relationships but lacking follow-through. The recent consultations represent a renewed effort to strengthen ties as both Sri Lanka and Central Asia recalibrate their foreign policies amid global shifts.

Central Asia, comprised of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, has been navigating complex geopolitical dynamics. While the region does not openly support Russia’s actions in Ukraine, it avoids antagonizing Moscow, balancing relations with multiple global powers. This “multi-vector” approach seeks to maintain stability and foster relationships with various regions and countries.

Sri Lanka’s foreign policy has similarly evolved. Following the 2022 crisis, which led to a change in government due to widespread protests over shortages, Sri Lanka has reoriented its foreign relations. India remains a primary partner, while China's influence has diminished, and engagement with the United States and its allies has increased.

Despite their differences—Central Asia being landlocked and Sri Lanka an island state—the two regions share similarities in their security concerns and foreign policy strategies.

Central Asia has developed strong ties with Russia and China, leveraging transport networks and trade agreements. Since 2005, trade with China has surged, and Central Asia has also sought to engage with Western powers following the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.

The Biden administration has aimed to rebuild relations with Central Asia in response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Similarly, the EU and various European governments are enhancing their engagement with the region.

Sri Lanka’s current efforts align with these broader strategies of extending diplomatic outreach. Central Asia’s increasing interactions with global players mirror Sri Lanka’s attempts to balance its foreign policy priorities.

Opportunities and Challenges

Sri Lanka’s engagement with Central Asia comes at a pivotal moment for both regions. The strategic alignment seems feasible given their shared need for balancing relationships with major powers.

Historically, Sri Lanka’s previous interactions with Central Asia focused on recovering from its internal conflicts and securing Chinese investment for infrastructure projects. With those avenues currently less viable, Sri Lanka is revisiting its Central Asia strategy.

However, sustaining long-term bilateral relations will require overcoming significant challenges. Director-General of the Central Asia and Southeast Asia Affairs Division, Sashikala Premawardhane, highlighted trade as a major sticking point. Sri Lanka’s trade with Central Asia remains modest, with exports peaking at $20 million in certain years and imports from Uzbekistan alone totaling $21 million in 2015.

Ultimately, while strategic alliances with Central Asia offer promising prospects, Sri Lanka must address these trade imbalances and continue to develop its diplomatic and economic relationships in the region to ensure long-term success.