Top Macron ally bets he’ll be gone in months Article by Politico

A recent article published by Politico claims that Former French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe delivered a serious blow to Emmanuel Macron in announcing his candidacy for the next presidential election, while the latter struggles to rein in an unprecedented political crisis. 

Philippe, a centre-right figure who has a complicated relationship with President Macron, is preparing his troops for a presidential election possibly as early as 2025.

He is banking that Macron will be forced to step down before the end of his mandate in 2027, according to several top members of his Horizons party. Those officials and other government advisers spoke to POLITICO on the condition of anonymity to protect relationships.

Philippe, who is currently the mayor of Le Havre, first broke the news in an interview with Le Point on Tuesday, telling the French weekly that he “would be a candidate for the next presidential election,” which is officially scheduled for 2027. Asked if he would be ready in case of an earlier vote, he answered: “Yes, I confirm it.”

His decision to publicly float replacing Macron so early is a major setback for the French president, who had previously considered Philippe an ally.

While his presidential ambitions are an open secret, Philippe’s announcement was unexpected, coming as Macron intensifies efforts to appoint a new prime minister and holds marathon talks with politicians of various hues that have yet to produce a compromise. French ministers have been serving as caretakers since July, when they resigned following a snap election that failed to deliver an absolute majority in the French National Assembly.

Macron has vowed to stay in his post until the next presidential election in 2027, as a guarantor of the French institutions.

But it’s clear that Philippe, who ran the French government from 2017 to 2020, thinks his former boss won’t survive much longer and is prepared to make it known. He has already tasked his party Horizons to “be ready for spring” in 2025, according to top party leadership contacted by Playbook Paris.

“He considers that everything can move,” someone close to Philippe said.

Even if a new government is appointed in the coming days, it will still face the immediate and uphill battle of getting a difficult budget through a divided and hostile parliament, which could trigger another domestic crisis. France cannot submit a slimmed down budget for 2025 without a new government, and the new budget needs to be submitted to parliament before Oct. 1 and voted before Jan. 1.

Best frenemy

Philippe and Macron’s relationship had previously been defined by rivalry and mutual respect. The former prime minister, who is one of France’s most popular politicians, had vowed a “loyal but free” support for Macron, with his party Horizons backing the French president in parliament.

But relations soured abruptly in the wake of the French president’s decision to call a snap election following the far-right National Rally’s strong showing during the European election in June. The former premier blamed Macron for having “killed” the governing coalition by sending his troops unprepared into this summer’s vote.

The Elysée Palace brushed off Philippe’s declared presidential ambitions, saying it was more focused on cobbling together a government to run the country. “We need to find a new prime minister, deal with emergencies and the challenges that face the country. So the rest …” said an Elysée adviser.

“He’s out of sync,” another government adviser said of Philippe. “In January, he refused to join the government; in June, he doesn’t want to run in the parliamentary coalition, and this summer, he’s completely absent while we are trying to rebuild the majority.”

Philippe’s latest announcement is expected to permanently damage his relationship with Macron and other centrists. According to two people with knowledge of the talks, the former PM met the president for two hours on Monday, without once mentioning his plans to announce his candidacy.

Outgoing Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin was reportedly “furious” with Philippe, according to one of Darmanin’s advisers.

“Macron will have one single objective now, that will be to atomize Philippe,” he said.