Venezuela’s illusion of Russian backing Analysis by The Atlantic

In a world where alliances are often more performative than practical, The Atlantic offers a sobering look at Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s reliance on Russian support in the face of looming U.S. pressure. Despite Maduro’s recent public display of camaraderie with Vladimir Putin, the reality on the ground suggests that Caracas may be largely on its own. The article paints a picture of a Venezuelan leader clinging to the symbolism of Russian friendship while confronting the stark limitations of Moscow’s global reach.

Maduro’s televised gushing over Russia underscores his desperation for international allies amid escalating U.S. military presence in the Caribbean. The Atlantic notes that Venezuela has long enjoyed deep ties with Moscow, dating back to Hugo Chávez’s arms deals and economic cooperation. Russian helicopters, fighter jets, and air-defence systems have been staples of the Venezuelan military, while Moscow has also invested in gold concessions, infrastructure, and cultural initiatives, signalling a multifaceted partnership. Yet the article argues that these longstanding connections may offer little protection today.

The piece situates Venezuela’s predicament in the broader context of Russia’s overstretched foreign commitments. Similar to Armenia, Syria, and Iran, nations that once expected Moscow to defend them found the Kremlin preoccupied with the war in Ukraine. Lavrov’s comments that Venezuela has not requested military aid, combined with the Kremlin’s lack of public commitment, illustrate that Russia’s “great power” status does not necessarily translate into actionable support for distant allies. The Atlantic highlights that the Ukraine war has strained Russian resources, with drone strikes on critical infrastructure and prolonged combat sapping Moscow’s military and economic capacity.

Yet, the article does not dismiss the potential for Russian intervention entirely. While Putin may be unable to commit substantial conventional forces, the Kremlin could supply drones, electronic warfare tools, or air-defense systems to complicate U.S. operations. However, these options are constrained by Russia’s need to protect its own borders and energy infrastructure—a challenge underscored by recent Ukrainian attacks. Even the delivery of advanced systems such as the Pantsir-S1, Buk-M2E, and the hypothetical Oreshnik missile is likely limited and would involve calculated risk.

The Atlantic frames this situation as a reflection of the transactional, often fragile nature of global alliances. Maduro’s public loyalty to Putin may be more about signalling defiance against the United States than securing reliable military aid. As the U.S. ramps up its Caribbean presence, including carrier strike groups and thousands of troops, the Venezuelan leader faces a strategic reality check: his reliance on Russia may offer optics and morale but little substantive protection.

By Vugar Khalilov