What forces behind escalation in Karabakh, on Armenian-Azerbaijani border? Former foreign minister's perspective

Recently, tension has increased both in the zone of temporary responsibility of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan and on the conditional Armenian-Azerbaijani border, including in the Nakhchivan direction.

The Ministry of Defence and the State Border Service of Azerbaijan almost daily, and sometimes several times a day, report on armed provocations by Armenians, which are stopped by adequate response measures.

And yet, the intensity of these provocations in recent days cannot but raise quite logical questions: why now? What or who is pushing the Armenian side to escalate? And what reciprocal steps do these forces expect from Azerbaijan? After all, it is noteworthy that the aggravation began immediately after the Lachin checkpoint was fully operational when the Karabakh Armenians were already crossing the border in private transport. To whom it was important to disrupt this process?

In a conversation with Caliber.Az, the ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, Tofig Zulfugarov, noted that the current situation is being used by two groups of forces. One of them believes that it can take the conflict to Zangazur, while the other wants to keep tensions in Karabakh.

“And when we return to the question of who wants the Zangazur corridor to work, and who does not want it, then we will come closer to answering the question: who, in fact, orders this tension? And immediately there is a certain interest of that group in the power structures of Armenia, which is oriented towards Iran.

Here we can also talk about another group of forces of European origin, primarily France, and maybe even in tandem with India. For a number of reasons, France and India are planning to play a certain game against the opening of the Zangazur corridor, which is contrary to the interests of a number of countries - Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and China. Therefore, the game is big here,” Zulfugarov said.