WP: Israel sought to reassure Iran through Russia before protests shook Tehran

In the weeks before Iran’s late-December protests, Israel conveyed a message to Tehran through Russia stating it would not initiate strikes on Iran unless attacked first. According to diplomats and regional officials, Iran signalled through the same channel that it would also avoid a preemptive attack. This discreet exchange — described by The Washington Post — was striking given the two countries had fought a 12-day war in June.

Israel’s objective, officials said, was to avoid appearing to escalate tensions with Iran while it prepared for a possible major military operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon, an Iranian ally.

The private assurances contrasted with Israel’s public messaging at the time, which suggested possible action against what it viewed as Iran’s rapidly rebuilt ballistic missile stockpile. Iranian officials viewed the outreach cautiously, suspecting that even if Israel refrained from striking, the United States could still target Iran as part of a coordinated effort.

For Tehran, remaining outside any Israel-Hezbollah conflict was nevertheless seen as advantageous, particularly as its domestic turmoil weakened its regional posture and reduced its support for Hezbollah.

The eruption of nationwide protests has since injected uncertainty into both sides’ calculations. President Donald Trump has been weighing strikes on Iranian regime targets in response to the crackdown, raising the possibility of Iranian retaliation against US interests — and potentially Israel.

Iran has warned that any attack would prompt retaliation against US bases in the Middle East. Israeli officials, meanwhile, have emphasised defensive preparations and avoided aggressive rhetoric even as they keep open the option of a major campaign against Hezbollah.

Senior Israeli analysts note that Israel ultimately seeks regional stability and the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah, while also recognising that Israeli territory could be targeted in any Iranian response.

Russia has continued to position itself as an intermediary. After Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Moscow, further messages were relayed, and Israeli media reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently asked President Vladimir Putin to convey Israel’s assurances to Tehran. Both the Israeli government and the Kremlin declined public comment.

By Tamilla Hasanova