Yerevan and Washington set to sign partnership document - "They made it...” Analysis by Farhad Mammadov

Political scientist and head of the Southern Caucasus Research Center, Farhad Mammadov, has commented on the announcement that Armenia and the United States are set to sign a strategic partnership document on January 14, sharing his insights through his Telegram channel.

"They made it...

The United States and Armenia are set to sign a strategic partnership document.

As we expected, after Trump’s victory in the US elections, Pashinyan’s government sought to institutionalize relations with the US as much as possible, in order to secure continued support under the new administration.

Let’s quickly run through the situation…

Since late 2023, the US and the EU have shifted toward full support for Armenia, which led to the signing of a document on April 5 in Brussels. Undoubtedly, this is a geopolitical move and represents the implementation of the geopolitical line (Georgia-Armenia), which President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan mentioned at the time.

Things are not going as smoothly with the full implementation of the geopolitical line (Georgia has complicated relations with the West), but with Armenia, it seems to be working.

After losing the presidential election, the Biden administration is taking the final steps, including formalizing strategic relations with Armenia. This is done to tie Trump’s administration to obligations arising from the strategic partnership—comprehensive support for Pashinyan’s government and aligning US policy in the region with Armenia’s interests.

Given Trump’s stance toward Biden’s legacy and the Democrats in general, it’s safe to say that things aren’t so clear-cut. Baku should make efforts to explain to the new administration that continuing to align US policy on Azerbaijan with Armenian interests will lead nowhere good; it would be a repeat of the Democrats’ policy.

The key question is whether Trump and his administration will be satisfied with US aid being provided to a country that is still a member of the CSTO (albeit with a frozen status), a full member of the EEU and the CU [Customs Union], and a military-political ally of Russia on a bilateral basis.

Of all these aspects, Pashinyan will only be able to sacrifice membership in the CSTO to demonstrate his loyalty to Trump and secure continued support and assistance.

Russia has somewhat tied CSTO membership with economic preferences Armenia receives within the EEU framework. We’ll see how consistent Russia will be if Armenia officially leaves the CSTO.

The CSTO will have a new strategic partner of the US. They already have two, Kazakhstan and Armenia.

On the border with Iran, a new strategic US partner will appear...

By signing the strategic partnership document with the US, Pashinyan strengthens his position within the country. Another factor in the push for snap parliamentary elections.

For Azerbaijan, the signing of this document between the US and Armenia is not a surprise. The level of US aid and support for the Armenian government should have led to the formalization of relations. Despite warnings from Baku, the State Department, under Blinken, pursued an Armenia-centric policy, which led to both crisis moments in US-Azerbaijan relations and personal clashes. As a result, Blinken made the final Armenia-centric move.

We hope that the text of the strategic partnership document between the US and Armenia will be made public, and we will finally find out what strategic areas of cooperation and obligations are outlined in the document, rather than how it was with the text of a similar agreement between Armenia and Georgia, which was only made public after it was signed again in Yerevan.

For Baku, the most important thing to understand is to what extent the Trump administration will adhere to the agreements with Armenia, whether the “blank cheque” policy for Armenia will continue, and whether U.S.-Azerbaijani relations will remain hostage to U.S.-Armenian relations. 

Answers to these questions will be received over the first half of the year, as the key foreign policy figures in Trump’s administration are appointed. Alongside this, processes related to Ukraine, the Middle East/Iran, US-EU relations, and more will influence the region’s dynamics.

We will get answers to these questions during the first half of the year when the main foreign policy decision-makers in the Trump administration will formalize their approaches in the United States. Alongside this, the processes on Ukraine, the Middle East/Iran, US relations with the EU and many others will influence the relations with our region. 

In the future, we have trials of Armenian citizens accused of crimes on the territory of Azerbaijan, the continuation of the bilateral negotiation format with no external mediator!" Farhad Mammadov writes.