Azerbaijan–China: Convergence of interests and goals Expert analysis

Farhad Mammadov, political analyst and head of the South Caucasus Research Centre, shared his thoughts on Azerbaijani-Chinese relations and their prospects in light of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s visit to China via his Telegram channel.

“The official visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to China coincided with the escalation of the tariff war between the United States and China. The confrontation between Washington and Beijing is gaining momentum and shows no signs of abating. Amid all these developments, the President of Azerbaijan is making a visit to China, and later this week, the President of Iran is expected to visit Azerbaijan.

Bilateral agenda

The Declaration on Strategic Partnership, signed last year, encompasses a wide range of areas—from political dialogue to the deepening of economic cooperation, support for transport and logistics corridors, and a shared vision of global order. Since last year, numerous delegations from both official bodies and the private sector have exchanged visits between Baku and Beijing.

The documents signed so far cover sectors such as investment, renewable energy, and technology.

What does Azerbaijan need?

Of course, Azerbaijan seeks investments, opportunities for joint production, technology, and increased cargo volumes along transport routes. Negotiating on these issues with China is particularly challenging, as their approach is driven by a focus on export and minimal import. However, the current global trade situation and the confrontation with the United States may influence China's traditional strategies.

The routes from the Chinese border to the EU space pass through countries that are the most predictable for China: Central Asian countries, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Iran.

Global context

Azerbaijan stands apart from tariff wars, not participating in confrontations within any conflict axes, and is the owner of its own infrastructure. At the same time, Azerbaijan is active in the Asian direction; the countries with which its relations are deepening are strategic partners of China—such as Central Asian countries, Pakistan, and to some extent, the Arab monarchies.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is an important platform for China to discuss security issues in Asia. Azerbaijan is increasing its level of engagement in the SCO. Additionally, Azerbaijan has succeeded in emerging from the shadow of relations in the Russia-China and Iran-China formats. Azerbaijan is an independent entity, and its relations with China should not be conditioned by relations with third countries.

Regardless of how global processes evolve, China will remain one of the centres of power, and it is essential and important to maintain a high level of relations with Beijing," wrote Mammadov.