Azerbaijani pundit: Russia missed its chance to mend ties with Baku

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will not attend the May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow, a decision that signals continued strain in relations between Baku and Moscow following the downing of an Azerbaijani passenger plane, reportedly struck by Russian forces.

Commenting on the development, Farhad Mammadov, head of the South Caucasus Research Center, said in his Telegram channel that Russia has failed to take meaningful action to address Azerbaijan’s concerns — a missed opportunity that could have helped ease bilateral tensions.

“About three months ago, during a discussion of Russian-Azerbaijani relations in the context of the AZAL plane crash caused by a strike from the Russian Armed Forces, host Murad Huseynov asked: how long should we wait for action?” Mammadov recalled. “The answer was — until May 9. That was the date by which Russia might take meaningful steps to meet Azerbaijan’s just demands and expectations.”

With Victory Day fast approaching and no substantive move from Moscow, Mammadov said the moment had passed.

“Russia has taken no such steps, it has missed the time to ease tensions,” he noted. “Even visits by high-ranking guests to Baku with invitations had no effect — the President of Azerbaijan is not going to Moscow.”

The crash in question occurred in December 2024 and involved a civilian aircraft operated by Azerbaijan’s national carrier AZAL. While Baku has pointed to a strike by Russian forces as the cause, Moscow has not formally accepted responsibility.

The political analyst warned that the issue may soon enter a new phase. “December will mark a year since the tragedy, and a final report will be released, after which legal proceedings will begin,” Mammadov wrote. “If Russia does not act, Azerbaijan must begin preparing in advance for lawsuits on behalf of AZAL and the victims.”

He also suggested that Aliyev’s absence at the parade could be viewed in Moscow as a political snub — and that a response may follow swiftly.

“The Azerbaijani President’s absence may be interpreted in Russia as a demarche,” he said. “A response will likely follow quickly — something will certainly be undertaken. There are actors in Russia who have a vested interest in this, as demonstrated by the case involving MP Badamov. Even the participation of Azerbaijani military personnel in the parade could be cancelled by the organizers… this is a hypothesis, of course.”

Looking ahead, Mammadov said the incident continues to cast a shadow over Azerbaijani-Russian ties.

“One thing is clear: Russia’s refusal to accept responsibility for the civilian Azerbaijani aircraft shot down by its armed forces is poisoning bilateral relations and creating a pause in high-level political dialogue,” he said.

He concluded by placing the onus on the Russian leadership.

“The choice now lies with Russia’s top leadership. The situation must be addressed and decisions must be made! Azerbaijan is adhering to a principled stance — one based on the truth.”

By Tamilla Hasanova