FT: Trump guaranteed to Arab leaders that Israel would not start war again

US President Donald Trump has exerted unprecedented influence over the Gaza peace process, compelling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make concessions that mark a notable shift from his previous positions.

By personally assuring Arab leaders that Israel would not reignite hostilities, Trump placed Netanyahu in a position with little room to manoeuvre, setting the stage for a dramatic realignment of negotiations, as noted by the Financial Times.

Just two weeks before he visits the United States, Netanyahu had declared to far-right supporters in an Israeli settlement, “There will be no Palestinian state. This place is ours.” Yet in late September, in a New York hotel room with US officials and advisers, he was confronted with a draft plan outlining a “credible pathway” to a future Palestinian state. According to a source briefed on the meeting, “The sting was in the tail… It felt like a final betrayal.”

Trump’s 20-point plan was the result of intense lobbying by Gulf states, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia, alongside the efforts of his son-in-law and former Middle East envoy Jared Kushner. The strategy aimed not only to secure the release of 48 Israeli hostages held by Hamas but also to advance Trump’s broader ambitions for a regional rapprochement and a potential Nobel Peace Prize.

Central to the plan was a firm US commitment to Arab states. Netanyahu’s negotiators were told “to stop looking for loopholes,” as Trump personally guaranteed to the Arabs that Israel would not resume military operations in Gaza.

This assurance allowed the US to present a framework in which Hamas fighters could be granted amnesty if they relinquished their weapons and agreed to “peaceful coexistence.” Forced displacement of Gazans was prohibited, and the UN would resume humanitarian operations, while an international force would provide security.

Although the plan disarmed Hamas and prevented its participation in governance, it limited Israel’s ability to annex or settle Gaza and prohibited retaliatory military action during negotiations. “The rule of thumb is Donald Trump’s interests come first,” said Michael Oren, former Israeli ambassador to the US. “And now that’s the rule [even for] Israel.”

Netanyahu faced a delicate balancing act: presenting the plan domestically as a victory while complying with Trump’s guarantees. Following Hamas’s selective acceptance of the plan, Trump instructed Israel to “immediately” cease military operations in Gaza, reinforcing the president’s influence.

The episode underscores a shift in regional diplomacy: a US president leveraging both political and personal influence to enforce a ceasefire and reshape Middle East negotiations, leaving Israel’s long-standing leader navigating a landscape defined by external pressure and limited flexibility.

By Aghakazim Guliyev