ING: Azerbaijan’s current account surplus could reach 9–10% of GDP

Azerbaijan’s current account surplus could rise to 9–10% of GDP in 2026, supported by elevated global oil prices driven by geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz, according to a new outlook from ING Group.

The bank said rising commodity prices, combined with strong portfolio investment inflows, are strengthening external buffers across the CIS-4 economies—Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Armenia—and providing support for regional currencies, Caliber.Az reports via local media.

ING revised its oil price forecast for 2026 upward by $4 to $93 per barrel, citing continued escalation in Middle East tensions and risks to maritime flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank said higher energy prices are particularly beneficial for hydrocarbon exporters such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

Under the updated scenario, ING projects Azerbaijan’s consolidated budget surplus at around 4% of GDP, alongside the stronger external position. The outlook also highlights continued inflationary pressure across the region, partly driven by global trade linkages with the European Union, China and other partners.

While tighter monetary policy may follow in response to inflation, ING said it expects limited impact on overall economic activity in the near term. However, it warned that reliance on portfolio inflows remains a vulnerability, as financial investors can rapidly withdraw capital during periods of market stress.

“Azerbaijan is exposed to imported inflation risks but continues to experience relatively weak domestic inflationary pressures due to subdued GDP growth,” the report noted.

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan has already revised its macroeconomic projections, significantly upgrading its 2026 current account surplus forecast to $5.5 billion, compared with an earlier estimate of $2.8–3 billion.

Azerbaijan’s current account surplus stood at $3.5 billion, or 4.6% of GDP, at the end of 2025, according to official data.

By Sabina Mammadli