ISW: Iran unlikely to make concessions in upcoming proposal to US

Iran is unlikely to make significant concessions in its next proposal to the United States, which is expected in the coming days, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the report, Iranian military figure Ahmad Vahidi, a major general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), appears unwilling to compromise on issues such as control over the Strait of Hormuz or Iran’s nuclear program. It added that various political factions within Iran are consolidating around this hardline stance.

NEW | Iran is unlikely to make meaningful concessions in its next proposal to the United States, which is expected in the next several days. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Ahmad Vahidi, whose hardline position on negotiations the regime has adopted,… pic.twitter.com/bRSlpA5Zjn

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 30, 2026

“The Iranian regime is likely attempting to modify and legitimize its plan to exert sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz by including Oman in a scheme to collect tolls on shipping through the Strait. This would enable Iran to present a 'new proposal' to the United States without compromising on any Iranian red lines. Oman rejected Iran’s proposal, however.

Iranian leaders are preparing for a variety of contingencies and risks that could result from a hardline negotiating position that fails to end the war, including an economic collapse that triggers economic unrest, a long-term blockade, or a resumption of the US-Israeli air campaign.

Iran has responded to growing pressure on the economy caused by the war, sanctions, and the blockade by shoring up internal unity, presumably as an initial step in a more comprehensive internal security plan.

Iran is reportedly exploring alternative methods to circumvent the US blockade of its ports, which is a suboptimal way to alleviate some of the economic pressure, including seizing US commercial vessels or Israeli-linked vessels, relying on trade with Russia and other countries bordering the Caspian Sea, or even the Houthis attacking vessels through the Bab el Mandeb Strait,” the ISW stated.

The report also emphasised that Tehran may reframe its position without abandoning its core demands and is preparing for sustained pressure, including economic hardship or a renewed conflict. There is also a high likelihood that Iran could use a ceasefire period to rebuild its missile capabilities and drone fleet.

Separately, the assessment added that the Israel Defence Forces is adopting adaptive battlefield tactics to counter the threat of FPV drones used by Hezbollah amid an increase in their deployment against IDF units in southern Lebanon. While the intensity of such drone attacks remains relatively low compared to their use in Ukraine, most of Hezbollah’s reported attacks on IDF units since the temporary ceasefire on April 16 have involved FPV drones.

By Jeyhun Aghazada