Russia, Ukraine approaching operational exhaustion from casualties, and other losses General Ryan’s views

A retired Australian Army major general, and military analyst, Mick Ryan, continues to analyze the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war on his Twitter page. Ryan believes that the Battle of Donbas is one of the bloodiest since World War II, and also pointed out the changed course of the Russian-Ukrainian war. https://twitter.com/warinthefuture

The military analyst believes that the Ukrainian military command has finally begun to consider the worst options in case of a retreat from the Luhansk Pocket.

“It is 112 days since the Russian invasion of #Ukraine. Today, an examination of the Battle of the Luhansk Pocket, and the political, operational and tactical considerations involved,” Ryan wrote on June 15.

“Finally, the Ukrainian high command will be doing worst-case planning in case they have to withdraw from the Luhansk Pocket. What are the key decision points and who makes the final decision? At the operational level, there is a need to balance support to several fights in the pocket. Tactical tasks include delaying the Russian advance from the east, holding open the ‘shoulders’ of the pocket in the north & east, and provision of logistic support/reinforcements” he says.

He questioned that “given the high level of casualties (especially due to artillery), what might be the priority for reinforcements - the forces fighting in the east, those blocking Russian advances from the north and south, or those conducting rear area security to keep open important roads?”

“Operational planners will also be thinking about, if the worst happens, how much of the Ukrainian force in the Luhansk Pocket can be saved. Can Ukraine afford another Mariupol-like siege in the Donbas where it loses thousands of combat and support troops?” the general says

He wrote that “tactical commanders, while focused on fighting for survival, will also need to understand some of the operational context I have described above. It will guide the level of risk they take, and how long they hold ground for”.

“But, the most important task for these tactical combat leaders right now is leadership and providing purpose to their soldiers. They are having to fight, tactically manoeuvre and survive in some of the worst combat conditions since WW2,” Ryan wrote on his Twitter page.

“The outcome of the Battle of the Luhansk Pocket is unlikely to determine the overall outcome of this war. But, it is a demonstration that the Russians have learned from their earlier failures and that the Ukrainians are now fighting a different war from that north of Kyiv,” the general says.

He added that “both sides are probably approaching operational exhaustion from casualties, ammunition expenditure and other losses. However, this battle concludes, it might be the event that sees the end of the initial pulse of combat in this war”.

“And while the full context and importance of this battle will only be understood in hindsight, we are potentially approaching the ‘end of the beginning’ for this war. There is a long way to go in defeating the Russian invasion,” the general concluded.