Whose soldiers will patrol Gaza if Hamas refuses to lay down arms?

A few kilometers from Gaza, the United States has taken control of an abandoned industrial zone in Kiryat Gat, Israel, where it has set up a civil-military coordination hub of roughly 200 personnel. The facility serves as a monitoring center for the fragile cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, and although US forces are nearby, they are not meant to serve as a combat unit.

As reported by Foreign Policy, Washington has made no indication that it will deploy troops to enforce the next phase of the Trump administration’s plan, and neither US allies nor Arab states have expressed willingness to send forces into Gaza to confront Hamas should the group refuse to disarm, as reported by the Foreign Policy journal.

The central idea behind proposing an international stabilization force (ISF) is to reassure Israel enough to allow a full withdrawal from Gaza while enabling reconstruction efforts. This force would also maintain security after the cease-fire. But serious obstacles remain, beginning with Hamas itself. Few countries are willing to send troops into Gaza if doing so could result in direct confrontation with Hamas.

The group has already been reasserting control since the cease-fire, with reports of executions of alleged “collaborators” and the appointment of five new governors in areas across the Gaza Strip. Reports also claim that Hamas has clashed with influential clans in Gaza to strengthen its authority.

Hamas has reportedly deployed thousands of fighters since the cease-fire took effect, with at least 7,000 mobilized on the first day, raising questions about what size and mandate an ISF would require to function effectively.

In interviews with Foreign Policy, three former high-ranking Israeli security officials said they do not expect Hamas to willingly disarm.

“By the looks of it, by the way they are killing people, I don’t see them disarming,” said Jonathan Conricus, former IDF spokesperson and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

If Hamas refuses, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that war could resume, while US President Donald Trump has warned that if Hamas does not hand over its weapons, “we will disarm them,” promising action that would be “quick and perhaps violent.” Since the US does not intend to deploy troops in Gaza, any involvement would likely rely on remote kinetic strikes or indirect support for Israeli operations, which could reignite armed conflict.

Former IDF research division chief Yossi Kuperwasser said the key factor influencing Hamas’s disarmament will be pressure from Türkiye and Qatar — states that helped negotiate the hostage-prisoner exchange.

According to Kuperwasser, Türkiye and Qatar could push Hamas to comply “because if they do not deliver, all kinds of things that Americans have promised them are not necessarily going to materialize.” Qatar risks jeopardizing a new security pact with the United States that treats any attack on Qatar as a threat to US security. Türkiye, meanwhile, seeks advanced F-16 fighter jets and greater regional influence.

The next challenge facing the ISF is a widespread reluctance to police Gaza militarily. US Vice President J.D. Vance has reiterated that Washington will not send troops. French President Emmanuel Macron has offered to train Palestinian security personnel but has not committed to combat deployments. Many Arab states are even less likely to engage militarily against Hamas.

“Our Arab partners will not shoot at Hamas, that much we know,” said Eran Lerman, a former deputy Israeli national security advisor.

Possible ISF participants include Egypt, which is expected to lead, with Jordan also joining. The UAE and Qatar would likely focus on reconstruction, while Indonesia has uniquely offered 20,000 soldiers. Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye are potential contributors, and Italy has signaled willingness if the mission is peacekeeping-oriented.

A major unresolved issue is whether the force will monitor a cease-fire or actively engage Hamas fighters. Israel opposes a UNIFIL-style model seen as too passive. France, the United States, and the United Kingdom favor a UN-mandated mission with authority to use weapons, similar to Haiti’s multinational Gang Suppression Force.

Egypt has not fully agreed, reportedly supporting a long-term cease-fire that allows Hamas to eventually reenter political life under supervision of a Gaza International Transitional Authority.

Lerman proposed what he termed “the most likely” scenario: dividing Gaza so that Hamas retains control over 47 percent of the territory where most of the population lives, while the ISF governs the remaining 53 percent, enabling large-scale economic development. Deploying international troops would then be easier in areas where Hamas has no presence. However, this option has not been publicly endorsed, because Israel still demands Hamas’s full disarmament and exclusion from Gaza’s future governance.

By Nazrin Sadigova