"Russian mediation - Take 2" Farhad Mammadov's opinion

Farhad Mammadov, political analyst and head of the South Caucasus Research Centre, analyzed Russia's mediation in the negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia in his Telegram channel.

"Deja vu... In 2021, during the monopoly of Russian mediation after the creation of the trilateral intergovernmental commission on unblocking, meetings in the trilateral format of prosecutors general, heads of security services, and religious leaders began...

However, these formats lost momentum with the emergence and intensification of European mediation, and then US activity.

Now, in December, the formats for tripartite interaction were back on track - an intergovernmental commission on unblocking, a meeting of prosecutors general, and a meeting of religious leaders is to be held...It remains to hold a meeting of the heads of the special services...

Along with this, they hint at a meeting of leaders at the CIS summit, which is traditionally held at the end of each year.

What's new to expect?

I hope that after the Sochi meeting, the Russian leadership completely realized that the conditions in the Armenian-Azerbaijani agenda have changed. The peace treaty became a priority topic on the agenda and both sides accepted the principle of territorial integrity on the basis of the Alma-Ata Declaration and the UN Charter.

That is, Russia will have to accept this principle and share its exclusivity in the Zangazur corridor with Armenia, and in the Lachin corridor with Azerbaijan. The main thing here for Russia is that they share their role not with other mediators, but with the parties, one of which (Armenia) is an ally in CSTO and the other (Azerbaijan) is an individual ally.

Once again, the processes are gaining momentum. The visit of Reeker, now Klaar to the region, the thwarted meeting in Brussels, the parallel activation of Russian mediation...

A meeting of foreign ministers is expected, but where?
Hints of a meeting of leaders, again, where?

Azerbaijan is pushing open topics on Karabakh: the remnants of the Armenian Armed Forces in Karabakh, financing, and infrastructure provision...

What will happen?

It is difficult to say anything, but the practice of the past two years shows that if the dynamics of the processes in the political and diplomatic sphere do not yield results, then escalation happens," Farhad Mammadov wrote.