Russian analyst calls Armenia’s shift to West “geopolitical choice driven by EU support”

Russian analyst Konstantin Simonov has said that Armenia's shift towards the West is a strategic geopolitical choice driven by EU support and security in the face of Russia's limitations in ongoing conflicts.

“The diversification of long-term relations with an ally country, or rather the implementation of a geopolitical choice, that is, the transition from relations with one pole to another, is a complex process because it is not only foreign policy and votes in the UN, these are all key areas of Armenian-Russian relations in terms of security and economics,” Caliber.Az quotes him as saying in an interview with Armenian media.

“These relations have changed and are changing not only thanks to the decisions of the Armenian authorities but also for several objective reasons related to Russia. However, the Armenian authorities declare that they are freezing their participation in the CSTO, but are not leaving the CSTO, much less the EAEU. But why? The answer is very simple, and the answer is numbers because serious funds flow into Armenia through the EAEU pipes. Thus, investments are not an informative way of representing diversification. I think that in the field of armaments what is stated is natural, because Russia itself is in a state of war, and many details related to it are difficult to know. There are many problematic issues. Each country chooses with whom to work, sometimes the conditions and opportunities do not change, but the capitals do.

Armenian authorities probably expect support and security from the EU, given that at-war Russia can no longer provide it. However, this process has too many layers, including objective and biased ones. In fact, this is not just diversification, since Armenia is making a geopolitical choice, that is, a turn, which is associated with many large and small problems and rules. And, despite this, the EAEU continues to occupy a dominant position in the economy of Armenia, with its advantages, and there is also a great connection in the energy sector because Armenia receives affordable gas from Russia. Now, how they imagine diversifying this issue is also interesting. Oddly enough, it is easy to change the situation in the sphere of arms supplies, but it is very difficult in the energy sector.

In short, it is a process involving many issues, and simply by declaring that they are diversifying, foreign policy and industries are not diversifying. Such statements are made in order to get something from the West as quickly as possible, but the Armenian authorities understand that this is not a quick process and also depends on geopolitical events that may take a long time. Therefore, I don’t think everything is clear and simple,” the analyst said.