Azerbaijani historian predicts Türkiye's fate as hegemonic state Conversation with Yunus Oguz

After incumbent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his main rival from the Republican People's Party (CHP) Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu failed to win an absolute majority in the presidential elections on May 14, a second round of voting was announced for May 28.

Expectations and preferences divide Türkiye, the world ahead of the runoff election. Nevertheless, a well-known Azerbaijani Turkologist, writer, historian, journalist, and political scientist Yunus Oguz in a conversation with Caliber.Az, expressed a strong belief that Erdogan will win in the second round and remain in the main office of the state for another term.

"I am confident that Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be elected president of Türkiye again. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) was again the main force in parliament. In the last parliamentary elections, the pro-presidential party coalition Popular Alliance won a majority of seats in parliament with 49.3 per cent, while the opposition National Alliance, led by the Republican People's Party (CHP), won 35 per cent. As a result, Erdogan's coalition will have a solid majority of 322 parliamentary seats out of 600. This means that even if Kılıçdaroğlu wins in the second round, he will face the problem of an opposition parliament in which pro-Erdogan forces hold a majority of seats, and it will be extremely difficult for him to implement constitutional changes and deliver on campaign promises. In theory, any decision by the newly elected president could be boycotted in parliament, which could lead to chaos in the truest sense of the word. Today, many believe that the right-wing Ata electoral alliance, whose candidate Sinan Ogan won around 5 per cent of the vote, should have the final say. However, I do not agree with this. Regardless of Ogan's decision, Erdogan will win the election," Oguz said.

The historian believes CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu was confident of his victory, but the election showed that the centre-right wing in Türkiye is very strong.

"Kılıçdaroğlu said there was an inflation problem in the economy. He wanted to use this and throw Türkiye into the jaws of Europe. In fact, inflation exists in every country in the world. And the elections held in Türkiye showed that the Turkish people trust the state and the head of state and see that Türkiye is pursuing the right policy. People have felt safer in their country since Erdogan took office. The number of terrorist attacks has decreased significantly. Every citizen wants security from the state so they can live comfortably, freely, and confidently.

Other reasons for Erdogan's popularity are national, and territorial security, and economic growth. Türkiye's economic situation is now in the public eye. At the same time, the republic has military power. Today, Türkiye does not buy a certain amount of military equipment from abroad but produces it itself, because thanks to the current government the country's military industry has become one of the most advanced and developed in the world. The people understand this and that's why they voted for Erdogan," he said.

According to Oguz, Türkiye has done everything to become a hegemonic state in recent years.

"Erdogan, without waiting for the results of the election, said that the government is preparing a hundred-year development plan for Türkiye. This means that in a hundred years, Türkiye will become a world power, a hegemonic state. This cannot be realised in one or two years. The geopolitics of the world has already changed significantly, and this is part of the new geopolitics," summarised the Turkologist.