China’s energy choices could shape world’s climate future

China’s rapid expansion of renewable energy continued at a record pace in 2025, but a simultaneous surge in new coal power plants has raised fresh doubts about whether the world’s largest carbon emitter is moving fast enough to curb emissions and limit climate change.

According to a research report released on February 3, China commissioned more than 50 large coal-fired power units in 2025, each with a generating capacity of at least 1 gigawatt. That compares with fewer than 20 such units per year on average over the previous decade. In total, China brought 78 gigawatts of new coal power capacity online last year, a sharp increase from recent years, AP reveals. 

“The scale of the buildout is staggering,” said report co-author Christine Shearer of Global Energy Monitor. “In 2025 alone, China commissioned more coal power capacity than India did over the entire past decade.”

The report was jointly produced by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor, organisations that track air pollution, energy systems and global power trends. Depending on usage patterns, a single gigawatt of capacity can supply electricity to several hundred thousand to more than 2 million homes.

At the same time, China dramatically expanded its renewable energy fleet. Government data from the National Energy Administration show that the country added 315 gigawatts of solar capacity and 119 gigawatts of wind power in 2025. These additions were large enough to meet all of the increase in electricity demand, allowing coal’s share of total power generation to fall by about 1% last year.

The contrast highlights a central tension in China’s energy policy. Despite booming wind and solar capacity, coal construction has accelerated, largely driven by concerns over energy security and economic growth. Power shortages and rolling blackouts in parts of the country in 2021 and 2022, including factory shutdowns and citywide electricity rationing, prompted authorities to push for more coal-fired power.

China’s leadership has argued that the country’s stage of development requires a steadily growing energy supply. Rising living standards for a population of roughly 1.4 billion people, continued industrial production, and the energy-intensive demands of artificial intelligence — a strategic priority for Beijing — all add to electricity needs.

Those blackout fears triggered a wave of permits for coal projects in 2022 and 2023.

“Once permits are issued, projects are difficult to reverse,” said Qi Qin, an analyst at CREA and co-author of the report.

Construction began on 83 gigawatts of coal power capacity last year, suggesting that additional plants could come online in 2026.

Chinese officials say coal is needed as a stabilising backup for weather-dependent energy sources like wind and solar, particularly after drought conditions cut hydropower output in western regions. Coal should “play an important underpinning and balancing role” for years to come, the National Development and Reform Commission said in guidance issued last year.

Industry groups echo that view, but researchers warn that excess coal capacity could slow the transition to cleaner energy if political and financial pressures keep plants running. The report urges faster retirement of inefficient coal plants and calls on China to ensure that power-sector emissions do not rise between 2025 and 2030.

“Whether China’s coal power expansion ultimately translates into higher emissions will depend on ... whether coal power’s role is genuinely constrained to backup and supporting rather than baseload generation,” Qin said.

By Sabina Mammadli