China's military buildup: Growing power while staying ultra-cautious Expert insights

In 2025, China plans to raise its defense budget by 7.2% up to 1.78 trillion yuan (around 231 billion euros). The announcement was made by the country's government on March 5, at the opening of the 3rd session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC, the highest legislative body of the PRC) in Beijing, dw.com reports. A similar increase was recorded last year, dpa reminds. China has the second largest defense budget in the world after the United States.

Since taking office in 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been leading a large-scale modernization of the People's Liberation Army. By 2049, Beijing plans to create a "world-class army." Chinese authorities claim that they have no aggressive intentions and are investing in the protection of their sovereignty.

What could these massive military preparations by China mean? Does Beijing truly feel a potential threat to its security? Is it possible that it may have to confront this with weapons in hand? And who is the potential enemy?

Foreign experts shared their views on the situation with Caliber.Az.

Political analyst, Doctor of Historical Sciences, and Professor Askar Dzhakishev (Bishkek) reminded that with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the bipolar world that had emerged after the end of World War II went into the past, and a 35-year period of political instability began, which continues to this day due to the efforts of all recent U.S. administrations to assert their solid unipolar hegemony in the world, taking advantage of favorable circumstances.

"In the 1990s, the global hegemony of the United States was so obvious that one famous American political scientist described this moment as the 'end of history.' However, in the first decade of the 21st century, the geopolitical challenge for the U.S. became China, which, starting in the second half of the 1980s, was nurtured by Americans through investments and the transfer of advanced technologies, with the goal of using it against the Soviet Union. Unexpectedly for everyone, and primarily for the U.S. as well as Western European countries, China's unprecedented economic rise turned into an existential threat to the entire Western world. Essentially, China marked the beginning of the end of the 500-year Western hegemony over the East, starting from the era of European colonial conquests," said the historian.

The current Trump administration is determined to prevent a shift in the balance of power in favor of China and will do everything necessary to halt the economic development of the PRC, making it a subordinate satellite, much like what was done with Japan in the 1970s.

"To focus on the eastern direction against China, the U.S. intends to stop the war in Ukraine or, as an alternative, shift the burden of military expenses onto Europeans. The leadership of China, clearly understanding the intentions of the U.S., is rapidly increasing its military potential amid attempts to create an anti-China coalition involving Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, and Southeast Asian countries with which it has not resolved border issues on an equal basis. There is also a territorial issue between India and China, which creates another point of instability for Beijing."

Alongside this, China, while increasing its military potential, will demonstrate a high level of restraint, applying ancient military strategies. The expression "the last Chinese warning" is well known, so one would have to make a great effort to force the Chinese to resort to military action," Professor Dzhakishev is convinced.

Russian political analyst and expert at the Caspian Institute of Strategic Studies, Alexander Karavaev, noted that China is not so much preparing for war as it is observing the growing conflicts around the world.

"These conflicts are on the periphery of China's space, but they see that over the past decade, the level of conflict has not decreased. There is a certain dynamic—decrease, escalation, decrease—but this overall trend is moving upward. Therefore, following normal strategic planning, they are preparing for any possible scenarios, and one of the key directions is the rearmament of the military with new types of weapons and, in general, the comprehensive preparation of the economy to function in any possible complex situations," the researcher believes.

"And there is no need to look far for examples," he says.

"Basically, China is very carefully and in detail monitoring how the Russian economy is adapting to sanctions and what solutions are being devised in this regard. In other words, they are preparing for any of the most complex modes of operation for their national economy."

In this case, the main strategy is, of course, import substitution. In this regard, all the necessary work is being done to localize high-tech production in China. First and foremost, this includes the production of processors of all types. It also involves the accumulation of resources. Preparation for the long-term storage of agricultural products is underway. Various types of non-ferrous and rare-earth metals are being stockpiled. This is being done to ensure future production. These are essentially ready-made semi-finished products.

All of these preparatory actions stem from the logic of recent developments in international politics. This does not mean that China will directly engage in any war. However, it simply means that China is minimizing the risks of such a scenario. Whether it will happen or not, I believe no one can answer that. Because history and the practice of international relations show that the cause-and-effect chain of conflict can emerge from entirely unexpected places," the political analyst reminded.

"Let's assume that everyone knows that the biggest point of irritation for the PRC is the Taiwan issue," he says.

"But not necessarily. Because a sufficient number of peripheral issues have accumulated, including trade wars, which might seem like a normal occurrence in peaceful times, but have much more negative consequences during periods of tension. Crises that could escalate into a real war may arise from the practice of trade wars.

But here we are also dealing with the fact that the potential zone of confrontation between China and the U.S. covers half of the globe. It concerns a hemisphere covered by water in the Pacific region. That is, from the Indian Ocean to the coasts of North and South America. In this zone, completely unforeseen developments could occur, which could lead to conflict. To a military confrontation. Which, in turn, could lead to something larger."

And this can already be seen in current events. For example, the situation with the Panama Canal led to China being forced to sell the managing company that controlled a number of ports. Some of them are located in the Atlantic region, while others are in the Pacific region. This was the result of the economic claims and demands of the new U.S. administration regarding the Panama Canal, which led to China losing a local trade and logistics skirmish with the Americans in this area, and reluctantly giving up control over several ports.

Therefore, China is simply aligned with global international processes that do not allow for complacency. Or, in other words, these processes force China to remain constantly vigilant, on guard, and prepared for various escalations that could arise from different directions," concluded Karavaev.