EU Reporter: Moldova is Russia’s next target

A lot hinges on stopping Russian troops advancing into the Ukrainian city port of Odesa, most of all the territorial integrity of neighbouring Moldova, writes Cristian Gherasim.

“We have to face up to the reality that if things take a turn for the worse and Odessa falls to the Russians, then the situation becomes extremely dangerous for the Republic of Moldova. If that happens, Moldova is the next,” Mihai Popșoi, vice-president of the parliament of the Republic of Moldova told EU Reporter.

“We can’t exclude Moldova to be the next target in Putin's crosshairs”, Galia Sajin, another Moldovan MP and member of the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee added for EU Reporter.

Sandwiched between Ukraine and the EU, Moldova finds itself in quite the predicament not only because of its proximity to the warzone but also because of the volatile situation in its breakaway region of Transnistria where 1500 Russian troops are stationed.

Transnistria recently made headlines both because Russian military officials commented about a possible intervention on the ground and due to a series of unexplained explosions happening around Tiraspol that the Kremlin could use to justify opening a new front to protect the Russia-speaking population there.

There are no clear guarantees to rule out that from happening and to protect the Republic of Moldova.

“Regretfully, I have to say that we have no security guarantees and our neutrality status might not be enough to fend off any possible aggression. The problem is Russian military presence in Transnistria”, the vice-president of the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova commented.

Moldova’s fragility has been further explained by Armand Gosu, a leading expert on the region. Speaking to an EU reporter he said that Putin would want to occupy Transnistria and instate a friendly government in Chisinau, the capital of Moldova, even though that might not be that easy to pull off.

“If indeed Odesa were to fall, the risk is huge for Moldova, as most likely Transnistria would be swamped by Russian military and turned into a new Donbas”, he said.

A sliver of hope that the region and Moldova might not be dragged into the war next door comes from the fact that Transnistria doesn’t want a conflict and wants to do business with the EU and Romania instead, a vision shared by the Moldovan Parliament vice-president.

The Moldovan official believes that current events have brought his country and the EU closer together.

“Obtaining that status of a candidate member state would help stabilize the situation and peacefully resolve the conflict in Transnistria”, Mihai Popșoi explained.

On the other hand, experts believe that without sorting out the status of Transnistria, Moldova might never become part of the EU.

Despite the high enthusiasm with the majority of the population backing EU membership and the European Parliament voting to grant Moldova candidate status, Transnistria isn’t the only thing stopping Moldova from becoming an EU member state.

The European Commission has been sounding the alarm over Moldova’s rampant corruption for quite some time and for the need to tackle it. In addition to the overhaul of its governance, Moldova needs a drastic break with oligarch practices - which the current government has said it will undertake.

“The oligarch problem in Moldova can only be resolved through justice reform. With such oligarchic structures it would be very difficult for Moldova to become an EU member state”, Armand Gosu explained.

If and when Moldova roots out corruption remains unclear, but the country’s pro-European president, Maia Sandu and the parliamentary majority promised zero tolerance towards wrongdoings, shortly after winning last year’s elections.