FT: Putin’s stamina for war will test the west’s resolve

The mood in President Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s bunker in Kyiv is sober, bordering on somber these days, and Boris Johnson’s impending departure from Downing Street is unlikely to lift the mood.

A cartoon character in Britain, Johnson was taken seriously in Ukraine. He delivered on promises of military aid and was a reassuring presence in a Western alliance susceptible to Russian blackmail over energy and nuclear weapons, Financial Times reported on July 15. 

Vladimir Putin’s strategy has changed from his initial unfeasible plan to install a puppet regime in Kyiv. Since then, the Russian president has engaged in a debilitating war in the east and south, with the goal of stripping Ukraine of its ability to act as a sovereign state.

“All the dumb Russians are dead,” a senior member of Zelensky’s entourage told a Western visitor recently. Putin, he suggested, was playing a waiting game, confident that he could take an initially heavy but now declining toll, break Ukrainian morale and ultimately prevail in his efforts to restore Russia’s sphere of influence in its near abroad.

In Washington, the Biden administration concluded that it was vital to “break through” Putin’s belief that he could outlive the West. This means that the Ukrainians must be given the means to inflict losses and regain territory in the Donbas and around the Black Sea port of Kherson.

Under relentless artillery fire, Ukrainian forces were forced to stage a tactical withdrawal. Although exact losses are closely guarded, some reports suggest that they were losing between 600 and 1,000 people a day. The onus is now on Ukraine to halt and reverse the growing Russian advance and prevent its forces from entrenching themselves for the winter. This will require a much greater Western effort to supply and train the Ukrainian military.

Most importantly, the US administration does not believe this effort extends to expelling all Russians from Ukraine, a prospect seen as unrealistic and potentially dangerous. Officials were referring to Russian military doctrine allowing the use of nuclear weapons in the event of an “existential threat.”

Bleeding the point of attack, sabotaging supply lines, playing on Russia’s manpower shortage, and raising the threat of unwanted national mobilization all serve the purpose of planting doubt in the minds of Putin and his commanders.

Only then can there be a chance for a “pause” in the fighting that would allow Ukraine’s forces to regroup, the Ukrainian economy to recover and exports to resume from the currently blocked ports. At that point, the door to diplomacy could open, with Russia and Ukraine coming to the negotiating table with Western sanctions still in place.

Or so it is thought. The problem with the “pause” scenario is that it may overestimate Putin’s sanity and underestimate Ukraine’s determination to fight to the last man and woman. Those who have spoken with Putin since the start of the war report a leader filled with grievances against the West but confident of his influence over Europe in the coming energy crisis. This week’s suspension of gas exports to Germany – ostensibly for pipeline maintenance – is just a foretaste.

Calls to reopen the Black Sea port of Odesa on humanitarian grounds – allowing wheat exports to distressed countries such as Bangladesh, Egypt, Lebanon and Pakistan – have been met with a KGB-style shrug.

Putin’s cynicism reaches heights that even experienced interlocutors can hardly tolerate. For Western public opinion, which has so far been firmly in favour of Ukraine, this should be a wake-up call. He’s in it for the long haul. It is therefore incumbent on Western governments to continue to justify generous economic, financial and military support for the Zelenskyi government and the inevitable casualties at home.

Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister and leader of the Greens, is a case in point as he seeks to wean Germans off cheap Russian oil and gas. So did Mario Draghi, Italy’s prime minister, who warned his citizens that this summer they faced a choice between peace and air conditioning.

Ultimately, the war in Ukraine hinges on whether the law of the jungle or the rule of law prevails. The outcome is being watched closely by other major countries, especially China with its “Taiwan Temptation”. Johnson is no Winston Churchill, but he understood the stakes. In this narrow but important aspect, he will be missed on the international stage.