How Europe’s maritime crackdown exposes Russia’s oil vulnerability

Europe is moving toward its most aggressive effort yet to choke off Russia’s oil lifeline, tightening control over maritime routes that carry millions of barrels of crude through European waters each day. An analysis by The Washington Post outlines that the push reflects growing confidence among European governments that Moscow’s oil exports — long the backbone of its war financing — represent a strategic vulnerability, even as Russian officials privately warn that the economy may be nearing a breaking point.

The European Union is weighing an outright ban on maritime services essential to shipping Russian oil, including insurance and transportation. The proposal, under discussion as part of a new sanctions package marking four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, would replace the existing oil price cap system and sharply escalate pressure on Moscow.

Fourteen European nations, including Britain, France, and Germany, have already signaled they could intercept tankers from Russia’s so-called shadow fleet if they are found operating in violation of international maritime law.

If enacted, the measures could affect nearly half of Russia’s oil exports — roughly 3.5 million barrels per day — that transit European waters via the Baltic and Black seas en route to refineries in India, China, and Türkiye. European officials increasingly view the shadow fleet not only as a sanctions-evasion mechanism but also as a maritime safety risk, given its aging vessels, opaque ownership, and shifting flags of convenience.

“Russian oil exports are highly sensitive to disruptions in shipping. It is an Achilles’ heel,” said Janis Kluge, an economist at Germany’s Institute for International and Security Affairs. “If I were in Russia’s shoes, I would be very worried about the developments both with regards to a stricter policy against the shadow fleet and the Ukrainian drone attacks against tankers. Because both create significant risks. It is critical for Russia to have these shipping lanes open for its oil, or it will really run into big trouble.”

Pressure on Russia’s oil revenues is already mounting. According to data cited by The Washington Post, Russian oil income fell by 50 per cent in January compared with the same month a year earlier after new US Treasury sanctions imposed in October on Rosneft and Lukoil.

Those penalties forced Moscow to accept discounts exceeding $20 per barrel. India, one of Russia’s largest buyers since 2022, has also signaled it may curb Russian imports in favor of oil from the United States and potentially Venezuela — a shift that the article has described as a significant blow to Moscow’s post-sanctions export strategy.

Recent maritime seizures underscore the growing risks. Inspired by the US seizure of the tanker Marinera last month after a weeks-long pursuit despite a Russian submarine escort, French naval forces briefly captured another suspected shadow fleet vessel, the Grinch.

The tanker, carrying 730,000 barrels of oil from Murmansk under the flag of Comoros, was suspected of flying a false flag. French President Emmanuel Macron said the vessel was subject to international sanctions.

A Russian academic close to senior Moscow diplomats described the threat bluntly. Any European ban on maritime services and further tanker interceptions were “serious threats for Russia.”

“This is a threat not just for the economy, but also it’s a political question about whether Russia can allow such actions without losing its political reputation,” the academic said.

Inside Russia, economic anxieties are growing. Russian finance officials have warned President Vladimir Putin that a crisis could emerge by summer as budget deficits widen, interest rates remain at 16 per cent, and banks strain under heavy corporate borrowing to finance the war.

One Moscow business executive said the crunch could arrive in “three or four months,” citing rising closures of restaurants, layoffs, and inflation that appears far higher than the officially reported 6 percent.

Yet there is little evidence the Kremlin is prepared to soften its war aims. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently dismissed Western security guarantees for Ukraine, instead calling for an end to the government in Kyiv.

“We have no understanding about when the war will end,” the business executive added.

The risks for Moscow may extend beyond Europe. As negotiations over ending the war continue, Russia is also seeking to avoid alienating the Trump administration.

“If Trump comes to the conclusion that Russia is sabotaging the negotiation process then it’s possible there could be new sanctions including on the energy sector, and this is a serious challenge for Russia,” the Russian academic said.

Craig Kennedy, a former vice president at Bank of America Merrill Lynch now at Harvard University, argued Russia’s position is weakening.

 “Oil revenue are sliding, credit is overextended. And Moscow knows things are only likely to get worse in 2026,” he said.

Even so, European officials acknowledge that enforcing a maritime ban will be a cat-and-mouse game. New intermediary traders have already emerged to replace sanctioned firms, a pattern closely tracked by analysts. The question now is whether Europe — with or without Washington — is prepared to test just how far Russia’s oil vulnerability can be pushed.

By Sabina Mammadli