How Taiwan remark drove China–Japan ties to new low

From tearful goodbyes at Tokyo’s zoo to military manoeuvres in disputed waters, relations between Beijing and Tokyo have plunged into their deepest crisis in years — with little sign of an easy way back.

Last month at Ueno Zoo, thousands of Japanese fans bid an emotional farewell to two giant pandas, Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei, as they boarded a flight back to China. Their return, ordered by Beijing, left Japan without any Chinese pandas for the first time in decades — and became the latest symbol of a rapidly deteriorating relationship between Asia’s two largest economies, BBC writes.

The diplomatic rift intensified after Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested in November that Japan would activate its self-defence forces in the event of an attack on Taiwan. China, which claims self-governed Taiwan as its own and has not ruled out using force to “reunify” with it, reacted furiously.

The issue of Taiwan is an absolute red line for China, which insists it is a matter of sovereignty and rejects what it sees as outside interference. Almost immediately after Takaichi’s remarks, Beijing issued a flurry of condemnations and demanded a retraction.

Observers noted that her comments were broadly in line with existing Japanese policy. But it was the first time a sitting Japanese prime minister had voiced such views so explicitly. Takaichi refused to apologise or retract her remarks, though she later said she would be more careful about discussing specific scenarios. Her government dispatched senior diplomats to meet Chinese counterparts, but that has done little to calm tensions.

As Takaichi begins a new term following a historically strong mandate in a snap election, analysts warn de-escalation will be difficult.

China has responded with what experts describe as wide-ranging “greyzone” pressure. Diplomatically, Beijing has lodged complaints at the United Nations and postponed a trilateral summit with Japan and South Korea. It has also sought to rally support from other countries, calling on the UK and France to side with it, while urging Russia and North Korea to denounce Japan.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi invoked Japan’s World War Two history and described Takaichi’s comments as a “very dangerous development.”

Militarily, Japan says China has deployed drones, sailed warships past its islands and had fighter jets “lock radars” on Japanese aircraft. Coast guard vessels from both sides have confronted each other near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, and Japanese authorities recently seized a Chinese fishing vessel.

Economically, Beijing has imposed export restrictions on dual-use technologies, including rare earth elements and critical minerals — moves widely viewed as economic coercion. Chinese authorities have warned citizens against studying or travelling in Japan and cancelled flights on dozens of routes, hitting tourism and some Japanese stocks. Cultural exchanges have also suffered, with concerts cancelled and film releases postponed.

Yet analysts say China’s response remains calibrated. “Thus far, its economic and military responses have been relatively limited compared to the past, but there is ample room for further escalation,” wrote Bonny Lin and Kristi Govella of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Robert Ward of the International Institute for Strategic Studies told BBC the pressure resembles “greyzone warfare” designed to “wear down [the opponent] to normalise things that actually are not normal.”

Both sides appear entrenched. Beijing is “deeply suspicious” of Takaichi’s stance, according to Lin and Govella, while her electoral victory may embolden Tokyo to press ahead with defence reforms. She has pledged to raise defence-related spending to 2% of GDP ahead of schedule and revise key security strategies this year.

Kiyoteru Tsutsui of Stanford University said the pressure campaign may not intensify significantly, noting: “So this tango will likely continue on for a while.”

The wildcard is the United States. President Donald Trump has voiced support for Takaichi, though analysts note Washington’s response so far has been muted.

“The Japanese are terrified there’s going to be some grand bargain between Xi and Trump,” Ward said.

For now, as pandas depart and tensions simmer, few expect relations between Beijing and Tokyo to return to their previous footing anytime soon.

By Sabina Mammadli