Iranian ex-diplomats worry about Azerbaijan's rising regional influence Baku's ties with Israel and Türkiye on target

Iran's former ambassador to Azerbaijan Mohsen Pakain has downplayed the strategic nature of Azerbaijan's relations with Israel, expressing deep concern over the latter's "presence" in the neighbouring country. Another ex-ambassador of Iran to Afghanistan and Italy, Abulfazl Zohravand, also made strong "statements" about Azerbaijan and Türkiye several days ago, saying that "Armenia is a priority for us compared to Azerbaijan".

Israeli-Azerbaijani relations through Iran's eyes

In an interview with Iran's IRNA news agency on August 23, Pakain pointed to the Azerbaijani-Israeli relations, saying that "the reality is that no Muslim country can establish strategic relations with Israel because this regime is the biggest security threat in the Islamic world, occupies the first Qibla of Muslims, and commits new crimes against Muslims every day. Therefore, relations between Baku and Tel Aviv are not on the way to becoming strategic, and strengthening Iran's friendship with its neighbours, including the Republic of Azerbaijan, will isolate the Zionist regime".

The diplomat accused Israel of destroying Iran's friendly relations with other countries, including Azerbaijan, and said that "the officials of Iran and Azerbaijan, who have a strategic view of relations between them, are aware of Israel's tricks and take necessary precautions. Baku officials are aware of Iran's sensitivity and have repeatedly announced that they will not allow the Zionist regime to make any moves against Iran, but in some cases, Israeli agents bypassed Azerbaijan's security officials and made moves that received an appropriate response from Iran".

He recalled that "while expressing its desire for arms cooperation with Baku, Washington entrusted the provision of an important portion of the weapons required by Azerbaijan to Israel and acted as a broker between Azerbaijan and Israel. As a result, Azerbaijani-Israeli military relations were strengthened, and Tel-Aviv became a buyer of Azerbaijani oil and gas, providing about one-sixth of its energy needs".

Strong anti-Azerbaijani statements

Against the background of these statements by Pakain, it is worth stressing that in late July, another Iranian diplomat unveiled Tehran's strategic goals with regard to Azerbaijan and its exclave Nakhchivan.

In an interview posted on the YouTube channel on July 31, former Iranian ambassador to Afghanistan and Italy, Abulfazl Zohravand, made strong "statements" about Azerbaijan and Türkiye.

"The Turks also want to buy Zangazur. They also want to cut our border with Armenia, which is several kilometres long. [Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali] Khamenei warned them accordingly. The issue of Nakhchivan and Karabakh ended against us. Nakhchivan should be completely integrated into Iran. Nakhchivan is ours. Even if a direct road or even an underground tunnel is built between Türkiye and Azerbaijan, we will have a problem," he said.

"The Turks are really blocking the roads. And now they are building a wall on the Turkish-Iranian border. In the long run, we will have a problem with the Turks," he said.

The diplomat said that for many reasons "Armenia is a priority for us compared to Azerbaijan," and added that "Armenians are allies of Iran. It has always been this way throughout history," Zohravand added.

According to him, Azerbaijan is a point where NATO can sit and divide Iran.

He urged Azerbaijan's unification with Iran, saying that "there is no such place as Azerbaijan. These (Azerbaijanis) are really Iranian Azeris. Otherwise, they must leave this area. Azerbaijan should be reunited with Iran. Unless it is annexed, it will disturb Iran like a cancer cell. Azeris are Iranians. They, however, define their own identity. They were said to be Central Asian Turks. They have no connection to Shiism. Fools write fake history. We must not allow this," he added.

The video containing Zohravand's controversial statements was circulated on Azerbaijani social networking platforms on August 23. The Azerbaijani state agencies have not yet been observed to comment on his remarks.

Iran's rising concerns after Second Karabakh War

A few days ago Azerbaijan invited a group of the Iranian military to its lands liberated from Armenia's long-term occupation in 2020. 

Earlier, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said in a conversation with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that Iran won’t accept any geopolitical change in the Caucasus. They spoke several days after renewed fighting between the Azerbaijani troops and the Armenian illegal armed groups in the Azerbaijani region of Karabakh.

In the past, Baku repeatedly dismissed as unfounded the claims about the alleged presence of third forces on the Iran-Azerbaijan border. It is noteworthy that Azerbaijan, which has never allowed third countries to use its territory against Iran, also never let any country interfere in its internal affairs.

Russia has recently put up new checkpoints on the highway in Syunik Region (West Zangazur) running along the Armenia-Iran border. The Border Directorate of the Russian FSB (Federal Security Service), which guards the Armenia-Iran border, issued a statement on August 8 saying that the move had been coordinated with the Armenian government and was due to increased cases of drug trafficking and violation of the border by members of extremist and terrorist organisations. 

Following this, Iran appointed its consul-general in the city of Kapan in Syunik, which is situated on a road that traverses the territory of Azerbaijan, and Tehran explained this move as a need for "an active presence" in this region.

Azerbaijan's government rolled out extensive rebuilding campaigns in the liberated territories after the Second Karabakh War in autumn 2020. The creation of the East Zangazur economic zone is seen as part of these efforts.

The new economic zone is expected to facilitate the opening of the Zangazur corridor, which starts in East Zangazur in Azerbaijan, runs through the rest of the Zangazur region in the territory of modern-day Armenia, and links to Nakhchivan, a landlocked exclave of Azerbaijan between Armenia, Iran and Turkey.

In case of the revival of transport links through the Zangazur corridor, Tehran will be provided with two new rail routes. The first route will link Iran through Azerbaijan's exclave of Nakhchivan to Yerevan and Tbilisi. The second route will also connect Iran through Nakhchivan to Baku and Russia.

However, Iran fears that the new link will undermine its access to fraternal Armenia, as the implementation of Article 9 of the 10 November cease-fire deal, signed between the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia, after the 2020 war, will amount to a “change of borders”.