ISW: Russia plans major summer offensive in Ukraine

The situation on the front lines in Ukraine indicates that Russia is preparing for a new offensive on multiple fronts, signalling that the Kremlin is betting on a military solution to end the war, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported.

According to the ISW, the main potential targets for an attack include the Slovyansk–Kramatorsk and Orekhiv directions (toward Zaporizhzhia). However, analysts note that Russian forces are facing serious difficulties in securing the initial positions required to launch a large-scale offensive and remain stuck at the stage of completing tactical objectives. This raises doubts about the potential success of a summer campaign.

Since July 2025, Russia has been building a strategic reserve through new conscripts but is already facing challenges in replenishing losses and has been forced to use operational reserves for ongoing battles. Commanders now face a difficult choice: deploy limited strategic reserves immediately to improve positions or preserve them for the summer operation itself, risking insufficient preparation for the offensive. The ISW assesses that the reserves are likely insufficient both for full preparation and for achieving offensive objectives.

The ISW also notes that the Kremlin continues to reject any meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine that could protect the country’s sovereignty. The planned new offensive demonstrates Moscow’s lack of interest in pursuing a diplomatic resolution to end the war in the coming weeks or months, analysts emphasize.

This conclusion is consistent with earlier directives from Russian leadership. At the end of December 2025, Vladimir Putin, during a meeting with military officials, ordered the continuation of the offensive to capture Zaporizhzhia and to create a “buffer zone” in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. These tasks were set after statements by US President Donald Trump expressing confidence in Moscow’s intention to end the war.