Analysts: Kazakhstan could benefit from soaring oil prices amid Middle East tensions

Analysts at Teniz Capital have assessed the potential impact of the new Middle East conflict on Kazakhstan’s economy, highlighting the oil sector as the primary area of concern.

The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly a third of global oil shipments, remains a focal point. Although Iran previously announced its closure, the decision was later reversed, but shipping risks persist, Kazakhstan-based media outlets report.

If the conflict continues, Brent crude prices could rise to $90 per barrel. In the first days of the escalation, prices briefly exceeded $82 before retreating to $78–79. Analysts warn that supply risks are becoming structural.

Kazakhstan could benefit as an alternative oil supplier, with the greatest demand expected from China. State-owned companies KazMunayGas (KMG) and KazTransOil (KTO) stand to gain. KMG could capitalise on higher prices and potential production increases within the OPEC+ framework, while KTO could see growth in oil transit and gradual tariff hikes. Discussions are underway to increase Russian oil transit through Kazakhstan to 12.5 million tons per year.

Reflecting these expectations, KMG shares rose 10%, while KTO shares gained 5.5%.

Economist Almas Chukin also noted that a potential change of power in Iran and the lifting of sanctions could create further economic opportunities for Kazakhstan.

By Khagan Isayev