TankerTrackers: Iran could maintain oil production even with zero exports

Maritime intelligence firm TankerTrackers has published a series of posts on X questioning the view that Iran’s oil sector is close to shutdown due to storage capacity constraints. Analysts argue that production levels could be sustained even if exports fall sharply.

The group noted that “the ongoing narrative that Iran's oil storage will fill up ASAP and cause production to shutter is wrong. If we look back to the Trump 1.0 era, Iran scaled back production to just under 2Mbpd. Fact is that they can refine that entire amount of oil just for domestic consumption.”

The ongoing narrative that Iran's oil storage will fill up ASAP and cause production to shutter is wrong. If we look back to the Trump 1.0 era, Iran scaled back production to just under 2Mbpd. Fact is that they can refine that entire amount of oil just for domestic consumption. https://t.co/RPbuIBLaeF pic.twitter.com/56y0WEIOqX

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) May 5, 2026

Data tracked since 2018 indicates that Iranian exports have already declined from recent peaks and are likely to continue falling. However, according to TankerTrackers, even if exports drop to zero, production could still be maintained at roughly 1.8 to 2 million barrels per day.

The report also added that production may not decline as quickly as expected even in the absence of exports, provided Iran is able to deploy reserve tankers and move them past US-imposed restrictions.

By Jeyhun Aghazada