Political analyst talks roles of Azerbaijan, Armenia in US' South Caucasus strategy

The US will do everything to prevent the Russian presence and, moreover, control any communications through the south of Armenia.

Political analyst Alen Ghevondyan made the remarks while sharing his thoughts with Armenian media on the latest statements by US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia James O'Brien, Caliber.Az reports.

Earlier, O'Brien said that trade routes from Central Asia to Turkey could pass through Azerbaijan and Armenia, which "would be a significant incentive for all countries in the region."

From Ghevondian's point of view, the Americans fear that Russia could intervene in case of new hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Then the implementation of the 9th point of the trilateral statement of November 10, 2020, would become only a matter of time.

"The long-term strategy of the Americans is the complete 'derusification' of Armenia, particularly its southern regions. This applies not only to Armenia but also to the other two countries of the South Caucasus. The same US strategy is inherent in its relations with the countries of Central Asia. Since the first days of independence of these countries, the Americans have been actively and consistently working to oust Russia," Ghevondyan noted.

At the same time, the expert found it difficult to say how effectively and quickly Russia will be able to counter these American plans. But it is obvious that Washington's actions bear results. This is largely due to Moscow's inactivity in the South Caucasus and its engagement in conflict with Ukraine. As a consequence, some Western politicians believe that they have managed to shatter Russia's position in Armenia to a certain extent.

"We are witnessing a certain game, the sides are actively bluffing and bargaining. By the way, this is largely inherent in the Armenian leadership, which is trying to 'sell' to the West its non-participation in the events held under the auspices of the CSTO, resorting to various demarches. But no one cancelled the principles of realpolitik, and sooner or later the power factor will prevail," Ghevondyan noted.

Azerbaijan is also one of the key links in the American strategy.

"Azerbaijan, like Ukraine, by the way, has always been a strategic partner of the United States in the plans and ideas of Washington strategists. Even Brzezinski in his concept paid special attention to the factor of Azerbaijan, which is largely due to its energy resources. Therefore, I would consider as ordinary episodes those or other statements, resolutions in the Senate or Congress that do not affect the American strategy," Ghevondyan said.

According to the expert, the current American criticism of Baku is caused by the latter's complementary policy and its active contacts with Moscow. But these contacts will continue as long as they fit Baku's interests. As soon as Azerbaijan believes it is necessary to intensify public contacts with the United States, it will do so.

The political analyst admits that Washington's public criticism of Baku is also aimed at shaping anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia. The US creates an image of a certain defender of Armenia's interests. In turn, Azerbaijan uses this to discredit Armenia in the eyes of its strategic ally Russia. In order to get out of this "vicious circle" and stop being a "battlefield" between two power centres, the Armenian authorities have neither skill nor will, the expert believes.

According to Ghevondyan's assessment, the Armenian authorities have ceased to be actors in the international arena, and their actions are purely situational. As for the US, they will use Armenia at a certain stage and then decide what to do with it.