Russia appears to pull back its forces in Syria - media

Russia appears to be withdrawing some of its military forces from Syria, following the recent fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Satellite images and Ukrainian intelligence assessments suggest a significant drawdown at Russia's key air base, Hmeimim. These images, taken by Maxar and Planet Labs, show a rise in ground vehicles, several large transport aircraft arriving, and the dismantling of Russian helicopters and air defence systems, all signs consistent with preparations for departure, Caliber.Az reports citing foreign media.

The extent of the withdrawal remains unclear, with some analysts speculating it could be a complete exit, though others are cautious, noting that it could be part of a partial redeployment. Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, emphasized that it's too soon to determine whether this signals a full Russian exit.

Russia's military presence in Syria dates back to its 2015 intervention in the civil war, where it provided significant support to Assad. The Kremlin has stated that its continued presence will depend on negotiations with the new government in Damascus, following Assad's abrupt retreat due to a successful rebel offensive. Assad has since sought asylum in Russia.

🔴 Suriye'de bulunan Rus askerleri Şam-Humus otoyolundaki noktalardan çekilmeye başladı. pic.twitter.com/2iZsbplwyp

— Conflict (@ConflictTR) December 13, 2024

The loss of the Hmeimim air base and Tartus naval base would be a strategic blow to Russia, as these bases are crucial for Moscow's operations in the Mediterranean and its broader activities in Africa. Moscow, however, remains hopeful of maintaining a presence in the region. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov mentioned that they are engaging in “constructive” talks with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebel group behind Assad's fall, and aim to preserve their military presence.

Maxar's satellite imagery also shows heavy transport aircraft and the dismantling of a Ka-52 helicopter and an S-400 air defence system. Reports from Ukraine's military intelligence also note daily flights between Hmeimim and Russian airfields, suggesting ongoing withdrawals.

Drone footage from Syria Television shows Russian fighter jets and bombers still stationed at Hmeimim, while two Russian frigates are anchored near Tartus. A slower seaborne withdrawal is anticipated, with two Russian logistics vessels recently heading toward Tartus from the Baltic.

By Vafa Guliyeva