Russia pays heavy price for minimal gains in Ukraine, says CSIS

Russia’s army is advancing in Ukraine at the slowest pace seen in more than a century of modern warfare, says a new report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which warns that Moscow is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains while sliding into long-term decline.

Despite Kremlin claims of battlefield momentum, Russian forces have advanced just 15 to 70 metres per day in their main offensives since early 2024—slower than some of the bloodiest campaigns of World War I, CSIS found.

Since February 2022, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 killed—losses unmatched by any major power in any war since World War II.

“Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is increasingly a declining power,” CSIS said in its annual assessment.

The slow pace of Russia’s operations is most evident on Ukraine’s eastern front. The offensive on Chasiv Yar, launched in February 2024, has advanced at an average rate of just 15 metres per day. After nearly two years of fighting, Russian forces have moved roughly 10 kilometres and have failed to fully secure the city.

The push toward Kupyansk, which began in November 2024, has progressed at about 23 metres per day, while the operation against Pokrovsk—launched after the costly capture of Avdiivka in February 2024—advanced at roughly 70 metres per day. Experts note that Russia’s reliance on Starlink-equipped drones is designed to overcome Ukrainian electronic warfare and exploit gaps in air defences.

After two years and approximately 50 kilometres of fighting, Russian forces now control most of Pokrovsk, CSIS said.

By comparison, during the World War I Battle of the Somme, French forces advanced about 80 metres per day, and at the 1918 Battle of Belleau Wood, American troops advanced roughly 410 metres per day.

Despite heavy bloodshed, Russia’s territorial gains have been minimal. Russian forces seized roughly 0.6% of Ukraine’s territory in 2024 and 0.8% in 2025—less than 1.5% combined since the start of last year.

At the peak of the full-scale invasion in March 2022, Russian troops briefly occupied around 115,000 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory. By November 2022, Ukrainian forces had retaken approximately 75,000 square kilometres through successful counteroffensives. Today, Russia controls around 120,000 square kilometres—roughly 20% of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions seized before 2022. CSIS estimates that about 75,000 square kilometres were captured during the full-scale war itself.

“These results fall decisively short of Moscow’s goal to militarily conquer Ukraine,” the report states. CSIS draws a historical contrast, noting that the Red Army took 1,394 days to reach Berlin during World War II. Russia reached that same mark in December 2025, but had advanced only as far as Pokrovsk, more than 500 kilometres from Kyiv.

According to CSIS, Russia has turned to a war of attrition after failing to defeat Ukraine quickly in 2022. The strategy relies on mass infantry assaults, artillery, glide bombs, and drones to wear down Ukrainian defences, accepting extreme losses in the hope of eventually exhausting Ukraine’s military and society.

While Russia has adapted tactically—expanding the use of drones and electronic warfare—it has failed to achieve operational breakthroughs capable of collapsing Ukrainian front lines.

Beyond the battlefield, the report notes that the war is exposing deeper structural weaknesses in Russia’s economy. Manufacturing contracted for much of 2025, economic growth slowed to just 0.6%, inflation remained high, and labor shortages worsened.

Russia continues to lag in key technologies, including artificial intelligence, and has no companies among the world’s top 100 technology firms by market capitalization. The country is increasingly dependent on China for trade, energy exports, and critical components needed to sustain its war effort—from machine tools to missile-related materiel.

While sanctions have not collapsed the Russian economy, CSIS concludes that the war is locking the country into low productivity growth, technological stagnation, and mounting long-term costs.

Russia “is not marching toward an inevitable battlefield victory,” the report says, but is instead grinding forward at enormous human and economic cost, relying on propaganda to sustain the image of success at home and abroad.

“The great irony,” CSIS notes, “is that Russia’s performance on the battlefield falls far short of its ambitions—yet the Kremlin remains willing to keep fighting, no matter the cost.”

By Vafa Guliyeva