Russian pundit: Armenia faces "France or Russia" dilemma

In a candid assessment, Russian political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko weighed in on the complex dynamics of Armenia's foreign policy, suggesting that the nation must make a definitive choice between its alliances with France and Russia.

“It seems to me that this is an attempt to give certainty to Armenia’s position. If you leave the CSTO, then leave," Bezpalko said in an interview with Armenian media, commenting on a recent telephone conversation between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Russia, Caliber.Az reports.

He emphasized that Armenia's decision to potentially pivot towards France, particularly in terms of military cooperation, would necessitate a departure from its commitments within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

Bezpalko underscored the escalating tensions between France and Russia, with the former advocating for military intervention in Ukraine against Russian forces. He warned that Armenia's alignment with France could lead to significant consequences, particularly given the existing complexities within the region.

“If you want to focus on France and are ready to receive weapons, then this is incompatible with membership in the CSTO. France is now an adversary of Russia, and the French president is in favor of sending troops to Ukraine to fight the Russian military. In this case, take your position, because, naturally, these actions will entail a number of consequences that are very important for Armenia, perhaps for Russia, but in any case, they will be more significant for Armenia than for Russia, due to the difference within the powers of these two states,” the analyst said.

Highlighting Armenia's seemingly ambivalent stance, Bezpalko noted the discrepancies between public statements and actions, suggesting that the nation must reconcile these contradictions and make a decisive choice between its alliances. He speculated that the recent conversation between Armenian and Russian foreign ministers likely centred around these critical issues.

“Armenia's position is very strange. On the one hand, there are some public statements and actions that we can clearly regard as unfriendly, and then they declare that no, we remain part of all integration associations. But you have to decide somehow, because sooner or later these contradictions will lead to the fact that you will have to make a decision either in Yerevan or in Moscow. I think the conversation between the two ministers was precisely about this. And the fact that this is not reflected on the website of the Russian Foreign Ministry suggests that this conversation was quite important and unofficial,” Bezpalko said.