Russian warships might hide in Georgia due to F-16 jets

When Ukraine started operating the F-16, Frederik Mertens, an analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague, highlighted to Newsweek that strikes from this fighter jet had put the Russian Navy on its toes, even in the eastern parts of the Black Sea. 

Notably, Ukraine’s aggressive drone strikes and missile attacks have compelled the Russians to shift a substantial part of their fleet to Novorossiysk—a location within Crimea. Despite this move, it’s clear that the Russian Navy is feeling the heat, Bulgarian Military reports. 

They have gone a step further and declared the development of a naval base in Ochamchira, a town ensconced in the Russian-seized Abkhazia area of Georgia. This move is seen as another calculated attempt to circumvent further attacks from Ukraine.

Mertens emphasized the significance of Ochamchira – explaining it as “practically the most distant port available to Russia on the Black Sea shoreline.” He also noted that the strategic withdrawal of the Russian Black Sea Fleet highlights the efficacy of Ukraine’s current military campaigns and underlines the formidable threat perceived from the entry of F-16 fighters into Ukraine’s arsenal. 

Focusing on the enormity of the threat from F-16s, Mertens affirmed that they are likely to pose a far greater challenge to the Russians as compared to Ukraine’s existing weaponry. Specifically, the capabilities of Harpoon anti-ship missiles, which can be deployed from F-16s, make the scenario particularly worrisome for the Russians. He added, in no uncertain terms, that the Russian Black Sea Fleet is within striking distance anywhere along the Black Sea, effectively turning it into “Ukraine’s playground”.

Spotted in October

Notably, the majority of Kalibr cruise missile-equipped ships from the Russian Federation have been relocated to Novorossiysk, leaving only a select few in the occupied region of Crimea. 

The move came in the wake of Ukraine showcasing its capability to launch successful attacks against the primary bay of the Russian Federation’s Black Sea Fleet, which is situated in the occupied city of Sevastopol. As a response, the Russian Navy made the strategic decision to relocate their vessels to the farther-off bays of Feodosia, a captured location, and Novorossiysk, an unoccupied region within the Krasnodar Territory. 

Open-source intelligence analyst MT_Anderson has confirmed these movements through the analysis of satellite images. His research indicates that beginning October 2, the Sevastopol bay was primarily housing non-combat naval vessels. These included four large amphibious ships from Project 775, in addition to recon vessels from both Project 18280 Ivan Khurs and Project 864 Priazovye.

Which ships docked in Novorossiysk

It’s been observed through satellite images from October 1, that the core surface forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, namely two project 11356R frigates – “Admiral Makarov” and “Admiral Esen” – have been relocated to Novorossiysk. On top of these, are three “Varshavyanka” submarines and a “Buyan-M” in the same sea region. 

In layman’s terms, this indicates that the Russian Federation has transferred its key naval vessels, equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, to the Krasnodar Territory. Given their launching capabilities, these missiles have the potential to strike Ukraine directly from the shores of Novorossiysk. 

Besides these, other prominent large ships include the Project 1135 guard ship, the Project 22160 patrol vessel, and three sizable amphibious vessels – two being Project 775 and one Project 11711 Peter Morgunov, the last of which was launched only in 2018.