The New York Times weighs in on recent escalation of Armenia-Azerbaijan fighting

Caliber.Az reprints an article by The New York Times author Matthew Mpoke Bigg, who zeroed in on the recent escalation of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as the role of global powers in resolving the issue.

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in New York this week for the first direct talks since more than 180 people were reported killed last week in fighting between the two countries. The flare-up subsided within days, but the high-level meeting reflects worries that the causes of the conflict — and the full-scale war that preceded it in 2020 — are nowhere near resolved.

Those worries are aggravated by the underlying geopolitical tensions. Russia is a longtime protector of Armenia. Türkiye, a NATO member, is a key ally for Azerbaijan and backed it in the 2020 war. And although US diplomats have sought to maintain a mediating role, Speaker Nancy Pelosi stepped into the middle of the fray last weekend, visiting Armenia to show support.

The trip was widely seen as a political move by Ms Pelosi ahead of the midterm elections in November. She was accompanied by Representatives Jackie Speier and Anna G. Eshoo, both Armenian Americans from her home state of California, where there is a large Armenian community.

Here’s a guide to what happened in the most recent clashes, what lies behind them, and the potential stakes of the issue.

The mountainous region of Karabakh has long been at the heart of tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but with a majority ethnic Armenian population, it declared independence in the late Soviet period.

A yearslong war between Armenia and Azerbaijan followed, killing tens of thousands of people and leaving hundreds of thousands displaced. It ended in a 1994 cease-fire that left Armenia in control of Karabakh and seven surrounding districts that were legally part of Azerbaijan. During the war in 2020, Azerbaijan — with powerful Turkish backing including attack drones — recaptured much of Karabakh and the surrounding districts.

A cease-fire brokered by Russia left Azerbaijan holding most of the territory, with Armenian forces pulling back and heavily armed Russian peacekeepers moving in.

Each side has a different story about how the fighting started last week.

Armenia said that Azerbaijan attacked and that 105 of its service members were killed and six civilians wounded. Azerbaijan said its military actions were “retaliatory measures” in response to provocation from Armenia, and it reported 71 of its service members were killed.

Although tensions between the two countries spring from who controls Karabakh, fighting this time took place directly between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where the border remains undemarcated.

The United Nations said that heavy fighting involving artillery and drones had been reported along the international border between the two nations on September 12.

Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spoke of “an incident” on “the deemed border,” but Armenia said Azerbaijan had attacked three towns in Armenia.

Azerbaijan is pressing its demands. Armenia looks to be playing for time.

One problem is that peace talks after the 2020 war have not yet yielded a resolution.

Armenia’s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has said he intends to come to terms, but his domestic opponents have denounced the sort of deal that would be on the table as treasonous. He already faced angry protests after the 2020 cease-fire.

Analysts said that Azerbaijan’s government had three demands: a renunciation by Armenia of its claims in Karabakh, the demarcation of the international border on its terms and security control of a yet-to-be-built road and rail corridor to Nakhchivan, an island of Azerbaijani territory inside Armenia. That would also connect Azerbaijan with Türkiye.

Russia has laid claim to two roles in this dispute, brokering cease-fire deals while also guaranteeing Armenia’s security. The first role has so far helped it avoid the full potential costs of the second.

Mr Pashinyan spoke by phone with President Vladimir Vladimir Putin of Russia when fighting reignited last week, and the Kremlin brokered a rapid cease-fire, calling on the two sides to respect the 2020 agreement.

But Moscow may also find its double role in the South Caucasus harder to maintain if the situation grows more dangerous. In 2020, Paul Stronski, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, said, the line between the two forces was in territory occupied by Armenia inside Azerbaijan. Now, “the Armenian and Azerbaijani militaries are pretty much facing each other on the still undemarcated state border between the two countries.”

Global powers are calling for peace. But some also need natural gas. The European Union, meanwhile, has redoubled efforts for a peace deal since the 2020 war: The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan held peace talks in Brussels in late August under the auspices of a top EU official, Charles Michel.

But Europe’s position is now complicated by its search for additional natural gas supplies to make up for the loss of Russian imports given the war in Ukraine. In mid-July, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, visited Azerbaijan to sign an agreement with Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev. During the visit, she said Azerbaijan was a “reliable, trustworthy” partner.