TRIPP–Middle Corridor alliance reshapes Eurasian trade map Assessment by The New Lines Institute

The Middle Corridor and the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) together constitute a strategic alternative to vulnerable transit routes running through the Black Sea, according to an assessment by The New Lines Institute, cited by Azerbaijani media.

The analytical centre notes that two recent developments have significantly strengthened the institutional and diplomatic foundations of the Middle Corridor: the August 2025 announcement of a 99-year lease arrangement for TRIPP and Azerbaijan’s elevation to full participant status in the consultative meetings of Central Asian states.

According to the report, the geographic expansion of the route — now encompassing Central Asia and the South Caucasus and linked to Turkish and European markets — creates stronger incentives for coordinated infrastructure upgrades, regulatory harmonisation, streamlined border procedures, and the development of multimodal logistics systems. For Kazakhstan in particular, this evolution means that investments in railways, logistics hubs, and port infrastructure are no longer solely nationally advantageous projects but are becoming essential elements of a more integrated Eurasian trade architecture.

The New Lines Institute argues that TRIPP should not be regarded merely as a regional transit corridor or even only as a geopolitical breakthrough that reinforces US engagement in the region and enables development in a previously underutilized space. Its geo-economic significance is considerably broader.

The corridor should be understood as a standalone route with substantial strategic impact, especially when integrated into the Middle Corridor and the emerging transport connectivity framework of Central Asia. Although its physical length is relatively modest by Eurasian transport standards, its strategic value is disproportionately high.

In practical terms, TRIPP represents a new east-west overland bridge through Armenia’s southern province, linking mainland Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan, Türkiye, and further onward to European markets. However, the institute stresses that its full strategic potential becomes evident only when it is viewed not as an isolated Caucasus initiative but as the western extension of the Middle Corridor. In this configuration, it directly connects Kazakh logistics hubs on the eastern Caspian coast — including Atyrau and Aktau — with Anatolia and the Mediterranean basin.

While TRIPP is geographically situated outside Central Asia, the report emphasises that its long-term sustainability is closely tied to Kazakhstan’s role as a central pillar of the Middle Corridor.

Over the past 15 years, Kazakhstan has invested approximately $35 billion of its own resources into railway networks, port facilities, road systems, and digital logistics infrastructure — a scale of investment that the institute describes as unmatched along the entire route. This sustained infrastructure strategy has positioned Kazakhstan as a key structural hub in Eurasian overland trade. As a result, cargo volumes along the Middle Corridor have expanded rapidly, increasing by more than 60 per cent year-on-year in recent years, the centre reports.

The report also recalls that on August 8, 2025, following a trilateral meeting in Washington with US President Donald Trump, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a joint declaration aimed at securing peace between Baku and Yerevan and establishing transport links between mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan. The initiative was formally designated the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.”

The Middle Corridor itself is a transcontinental trade and transport route connecting Asia and Europe through multiple regional states. It serves as an alternative to the traditional Northern and Southern corridors.

The route originates in China and passes through Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. It then crosses the Caspian Sea, continues through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye, and ultimately reaches European markets. As a land-based corridor, it bypasses longer maritime routes, linking eastern Asia — including China — directly with Europe.

By Tamilla Hasanova