US intelligence doubts regime change in Iran

US intelligence considers it unlikely that the Iranian regime will be overthrown, even in the event of a protracted war.

The Washington Post reports, citing a classified document from the US National Intelligence Council.

According to the report, even a large-scale US military attack is unlikely to remove the entrenched military and religious elite of the Islamic Republic.

The newspaper notes that this assessment is sobering in light of recent statements by President Donald Trump about a possible prolonged campaign, which officials say has “only just begun.”

Three sources familiar with the document told the paper that the report casts doubt on plans to “clean out” Iran’s leadership and install a new ruler in the country.

The document was completed roughly a week before the start of the US-Israel war against Iran on 28 February. It examined scenarios for a regime change both after a limited operation targeting the country’s leadership and after large-scale strikes on state institutions.

In both cases, intelligence concluded that Iran’s religious and military elite would follow pre-established procedures to maintain continuity of power if Supreme Leader Khamenei were killed.

Furthermore, the likelihood that Iran’s fragmented opposition could seize power is assessed as low.