When and how may rally of Azerbaijani environmental activists on Lachin road end? Azerbaijani analyst explains

Azerbaijani political analyst, head of the Centre for Studies of the South Caucasus Farhad Mammadov has posted an analysis on his Telegram channel about the possible end of the rally of Azerbaijani environmental activists on the Lachin road.

He wrote, according to Caliber.Az:

“Azerbaijani environmental activists have been protesting over the illegal exploitation of mineral deposits in Karabakh since December 12. The Russian peacekeepers blocked the road and a crisis situation occurred.

Why a month ago?

The western mediation was merged with the Armenia-France tandem by late November 2022. Neither President of the European Council Charles Michel nor US Secretary of State Antony Blinken dare to stop French President Emmanuel Macron. Let’s wait.

The Western mediation agenda covers interstate issues, and there is a generalised item on Baku-Khankendi relations. There is nothing on the Western agenda on the Lachin road! As for the restoration of the route, there is an agreed principle of sovereignty over routes, as a result of which the checkpoint at the border on the Lachin road would appear by default. The negotiations did not give any result due to Armenia’s intransigence on the route of the road. Other issues have been agreed. As for the text of the peace treaty, Armenia is unsuccessfully trying to introduce a clause on Karabakh!

What about Russian mediation?

The current crisis is a consequence of the breakdown of the Russian mediation agenda. From the very end of the war, it is clear that the Lachin road remains under Russia’s control for five years, and the Zangazur corridor is also under Russia’s control, but not limited by periods of time. That is, both Azerbaijan and Russia need the Zangazur corridor, while Armenia needs the general restoration of routes.

Armenia sabotaged the process. Russia did not take strong-willed actions in 2021, while an alternative Western agenda was created in 2022.

By late 2022, Russia resumed activity in mediation, but faced new realities, partially accepting them.

Russia made it clear that some new vectors are accepted if both Azerbaijan and Armenia agree to recognise each other's territorial integrity. This is such an acceptance, during which you have some time to do something, especially in the presence of such diverse politicians as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Russia still does not lose hope for the restoration of routes with its exclusivity in both corridors.

Azerbaijan accepted the resumption of Russian mediation, but after a certain period of time, when (separatist) the "Vardanyan project" was used, it decided to act to stop the "project". As a result, environmentalists are holding a rally on Lachin road. That is, Russia can still solve the issue of the Zangazur corridor, but it will be unable to change the reality on the Lachin road. It is necessary to take this into account.

How will the situation on Lachin road end?!

The intentions of all participants in the process are mixed. Therefore, there is an endurance game, given no trust in each other.

As for Azerbaijan, there is numerous anti-Azerbaijani content in the world media, thousands of tweets from partisan politicians and the escalated situation in useless international organisations. As for Armenia, this is pressure on a peace treaty, restoration of routes, and a threat to security. As for Russia, there is discrediting of the Russian peacekeepers’ activity and the inevitable loss of the original exclusive positions.

Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia act against each other and in situational tandems against a third participant. Russia is interested in Armenian activity in the international media and organisations expressing the hope that Baku will retreat. However, as the practice has shown, Baku will not retreat, even in case of sanctions.

It seems that the Azerbaijani leadership has conditional deadlines for Moscow to force Armenia to agree to the restoration of routes. If it does not work out, then Moscow will have to share control of the Lachin road.

The eco-action on the Lachin road also sends messages to Russia that the “Vardanyan project” will not be successful and it is better to remove the stupid person [Ruben Vardanyan] from Karabakh.

As for Azerbaijan, this crisis is a bloodless rally to force both mediators and Armenia to make decisions, to negotiate. If there are no decisions, Azerbaijan will establish control over the entrance and exit to the Lachin road on its own.

Why is this not being done now?

The reason is that Baku strives for this to be part of the agreements [and] the normalisation process, to be accepted by all sides and not to be disputed at any level. By the way, there will be less informational fuss from the checkpoint than from the eco-action.”