Agreement achieved, but developed nations could have done more COP29 President on hard-fought climate deal

Azerbaijan's Minister of Environment and COP29 President, Mukhtar Babayev, has authored an article in The Guardian addressing the concerns raised by developing nations over the decision of developed countries to allocate $300 billion in climate aid. In the article, he also explores the challenges faced by the COP29 presidency in navigating critical issues.

The article reads that nine years after the Paris Agreement, and following 11 months of rigorous multilateral diplomacy and two weeks of intense negotiations at COP29 in Baku, a landmark deal has been reached. Dubbed the "Baku breakthrough," the agreement commits industrialized nations to provide $300 billion in climate aid. When combined with contributions from multilateral lending institutions and the private sector, the total financing will amount to $1.3 trillion.

Babayev highlights that COP29 also succeeded in finalizing a long-awaited global framework for international carbon market trading, a critical mechanism enabling less industrialized and lower-income nations to secure climate finance. Moreover, a fund for addressing loss and damage in developing nations, introduced shortly before the summit, is already receiving contributions.

The article acknowledges that the deal is imperfect and cannot satisfy all stakeholders. Nevertheless, it represents a significant step forward from the $100 billion commitment made in Paris in 2015.

The agreement nearly failed to materialize. Two days before the summit’s conclusion, over 100 developing nations from the global south rejected an initial financial package of $250 billion from industrialized countries, arguing that it was insufficient given their minimal contribution to the climate crisis.

The Azerbaijani negotiating team, the article notes, did not propose the $250 billion figure because they considered it adequate but because developed nations were unyielding in increasing their contributions or presenting the package earlier. After intense negotiations, the final figure of $300 billion was agreed upon, largely due to Azerbaijan's persistence. However, the article stresses that even this amount falls far short of the scientifically recommended $1 trillion needed to prevent catastrophic climate impacts.

To address this gap, the article details how Azerbaijan proposed a blended financing approach totalling $1.3 trillion, combining the $300 billion in government contributions with funds from intergovernmental institutions and the private sector. While this approach underscores the necessity of diversified funding, the global south remained critical of the industrialized world’s limited commitment and the speculative nature of private sector financing.

The article observes that the negotiations were constrained by time and entrenched positions. Some Western nations, it reports, were particularly resistant to increasing their financial commitments. However, not all developed countries were inflexible. The UK, for instance, reasserted its global climate leadership with new decarbonization and net-zero targets, while other nations demonstrated varying degrees of cooperation.

The European Union, as Babayev notes, maintained that its contribution could not exceed the original $250 billion proposal due to economic pressures at home. However, following backlash from small island states, Azerbaijan convened a crucial meeting with the EU, the UK, and the US, which ultimately led to the increase to $300 billion.

The piece also critiques the decision by some Western nations to withhold the draft agreement, particularly its financial details, until the penultimate day of the summit. This lack of transparency, it argues, understandably created frustration among developing nations, who viewed the process as a fait accompli. Despite Azerbaijan's calls for earlier disclosure, the requests were denied.

China, the article notes, adopted a different strategy, working closely with the G77 group of developing nations throughout the summit. China suggested a $500 billion contribution from industrialized nations — a figure still inadequate for limiting global warming to 1.5°C but more acceptable to many developing countries, including Kenya and several African nations.

The article concludes by emphasizing the importance of the agreement, noting that walking away from Baku without a deal was not an option. Through intense debates and negotiations involving 198 parties, the summit achieved a modest yet meaningful step toward addressing the climate crisis.

Babayev underscores that the Azerbaijani presidency’s work does not end here. With six months remaining before the leadership transitions to Brazil for COP30, efforts will continue to build upon the progress made in Baku. While the deal is insufficient to fully address the climate crisis, it provides a vital starting point and a tangible achievement to bring to the Amazonian city of Belém — a deal that very nearly never came to fruition.

By Tamilla Hasanova