C5+1, TRIPP: US shapes new architecture for Caspian region Article by The National Interest

The US-based The National Interest magazine has published an article by Eugene Chausovsky, Senior Director of the New Lines Institute, devoted to geopolitical changes in the Caspian region. Caliber.Az reprints some excerpts from the piece.

“As prolonged and simmering conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to cost lives and cause disruptions to everything from trade to transit to energy production, there is a strategic region located between these two theaters that is currently experiencing the opposite effect. That theater is the Caspian region, undergoing significant transformations in which diplomatic breakthroughs are being formed and international infrastructure and energy connectivity efforts are being enhanced, in no small part due to direct and increasing engagement from the United States.

One case in point was a recent announcement by Armenian economy minister Gevorg Papoyan on November 6 that Armenia had received a direct cargo shipment of grain supplies from Azerbaijan. While the volume of just over 1,000 tons was relatively modest, this shipment represented the first direct, cross-border trade between the two countries since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. For much of the ensuing three decades, Armenia and Azerbaijan were at war. International mediation failed to gain traction. 

However, in the early part of the 2020s, the geopolitical realities of this conflict began to shift. Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict, US and EU focus on that theater, and the emergence of regional players like Türkiye enabled Azerbaijan [along with its own oil and gas-backed growth of economic and military power] to strengthen its position vis-à-vis Armenia. Starting in 2020 and culminating at the end of 2023, Baku launched military operations to retake the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh [Karabakh - ed.], as well as neighboring regions around it, seized by Armenian forces in the early years of the conflict. 

The leadership of Azerbaijan and Armenia both used this shift on the ground as a means to begin a diplomatic normalization process. Azerbaijan wanted to secure access to its Nakhchivan exclave and expand its connections to Türkiye and further on to Europe, while Armenia wanted to break out of its landlocked isolation and to build its own connections within the region and beyond.

This normalization process between Armenia and Azerbaijan was one that experienced numerous challenges. However, Baku and Yerevan continued to make gradual progress in their negotiations. This was then accelerated by another geopolitical shift, this time within the US. 

President Trump’s victory in the 2024 US elections set off a rapid and dramatic rewiring of US foreign policy. Trump aimed to sign or renegotiate agreements to gain economic benefits for the United States, encompassing everything from the use of reciprocal tariffs to form new trade deals to attracting investments into the United States to securing greater access to critical minerals. 

A key focus of this approach is ending long-standing wars or international disputes that served to undermine economic and trade activity. While implementing this strategy has proven difficult in protracted conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine War and Middle Eastern conflicts like Gaza and Lebanon, the Caspian region proved ripe for the new Trump administration’s approach.

Trump oversaw the signing of an official peace agreement [Joint Declaration–ed.] between Azerbaijan and Armenia in August, which also coincided with the announcement of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity [TRIPP] to enhance regional connectivity initiatives throughout the region. 

This initiative launch was contextualized by several other agreements, including an MoU for a strategic partnership between the United States and Azerbaijan centered around energy and enhancing the Southern Gas Corridor, as well as several deals between the United States and Armenia on infrastructure and building technological capacity. The United States has also been involved in a parallel diplomatic normalization process between Armenia and Türkiye, which would further unlock regional connectivity efforts if secured. 

Perhaps no less importantly, the United States has set its sights on the other side of the Caspian Sea by pursuing several agreements with Central Asia. In early November, Trump hosted each of the five Central Asian presidents at a summit in Washington, DC, commemorating the 10th anniversary of the C5+1, an initiative that spans numerous US presidents going back to the Obama administration. This summit coincided with numerous deals between the United States and Central Asian states on energy, transport, and critical minerals.

Thus, the Caspian region has emerged as a critical example of the Trump administration’s transactional foreign policy. The region provides the United States with economic benefits like access to energy and mineral resources, and it also aligns with many of Trump’s core diplomatic initiatives. This includes the recent addition of Kazakhstan to the Abraham Accords as part of Trump’s broader Middle Eastern strategy, giving the US leverage with China via critical minerals in its geopolitical competition with Beijing. 

There is always concern among regional states that the Trump administration could lose interest and shift its priorities to other areas. However, if the substantial diplomatic momentum between the United States and Caspian states is translated into the functional and sustained implementation of connectivity enhancement, this has the opportunity to be nothing short of transformative for the Caspian region and potentially well beyond,” Chausovsky writes.