Economist: Azerbaijan's 2025 state budget resilient to oil price swings

The sharp decline in global oil prices experienced in the past days does not pose significant risks to the execution of Azerbaijan's state budget.

Tahir Mirkishili, former MP and current member of the Economic Policy, Industry, and Entrepreneurship Committee of the Milli Majlis (parliament), provided this ensuring prediction during an interview with local media.

He noted that despite the price of Azerbaijan's oil brand, Azeri Light oil, having fallen below the budgeted level of $70 per barrel in recent days, there are no significant risks to the country's financial stability.

"Even under a pessimistic scenario in which oil prices drop to $60, the revenue loss would be less than 1% — equal to around 340 million manats [$200 million], and the State Oil Fund's [SOFAZ] income could decrease by 2.1 billion manats [approx. $1.24 billion]. However, the budget has already been executed with a surplus of over 1.6 billion manats [approx. $940 million] in the first quarter," Mirkishili explained.

He furthermore emphasized that the country possesses large foreign currency reserves and could, if necessary, implement a balanced and flexible economic policy to ensure national stability.

By Nazrin Sadigova