Expert: Azerbaijan moves forward with single agenda at negotiating platforms Farhad Mammadov about Sochi summit results

Azerbaijani political scientist and head of the South Caucasus Research Centre Farhad Mammadov has analysed on his Telegram channel the Sochi summit held on October 31 with the Azerbaijani, Russian and Armenian leaders' participation.

"Despite Russia's all efforts, it was not possible to come to at least some specifics on any of the topics on the agenda. Even the 45,000-strong Iranian army on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border, the rally in Khankandi and the abominations on Russian state TV yielded no result.

This is just the beginning!

Russia is trying to restore its position and will have to accept the reality that the peace treaty process is inevitable. Thus, Armenia recognises the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and, as the Russian president noted that "the fate of the Russian peacekeeping contingent will depend on the process of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border delimitation process". That is, it's about the checkpoint in Lachin.

During this time, of course, there will be attempts to change the situation: pressure will be exerted. More in Armenia through pro-Russian forces and Karabakh Armenians. However, the Sochi meeting and the toothless statement undermined the pace of these forces. The Armenians of Karabakh also thought about their fate if they connect it with Russia. Let's look at the marker of Russian activity - [Russian tycoon Ruben] Vardanyan, and what he will do in these conditions.

Pashinyan secured himself inside the country by neutralising pro-Russian forces with his behaviour and statements. According to the "leaks" from Azerbaijan, Pashinyan sought to squeeze into the statement exclusively issues directly related to Armenia - border incidents. But it didn't work out either!

The 40 horsemen of the apocalypse from the EU are the Armenian prime minister's only achievement in attracting the international community's attention to the territorial integrity of Armenia, which, in his opinion, has been violated.

November promises to be hot

Meetings of the foreign ministers, expert groups on the peace treaty, the border commission and the leaders' summit in Brussels are scheduled for this month. Azerbaijan keeps the pace of negotiations at a high level within the framework of the stated positions.

Iran's activity is expected to slow after the toothlessness of Sochi. Background support for regional tensions, which Iran dealt with, had no effect. The [Iranian] consulate general in Gafan, new agreements with Armenia, problems with Azerbaijan, the stated position - Iran will stop there. And the Armenian leadership itself is not happy with Iran's activity - Tehran's thesis about the impossibility of involving extra-regional forces restricts Pashinyan himself in the western direction. Only if serious events occur in the region, Iran can restore its activity.

By serious events, I mean an attempted coup or a large-scale escalation.

I would not be surprised if the authorities in Armenia reveal an attempted coup in the near future, with arrests and the banning of certain political organisations.
Legal and organisational preparations have already been completed.

Critical two-month period has begun

Azerbaijan has established a difference between relations with Armenia and the Armenians of Karabakh. All intermediaries and interested parties in the region have accepted this reality. No matter what anyone says about the "Karabakh conflict", however, there is nothing like that in the documents and there will not be.

Baku continues to differentiate the topics and moves forward with a single agenda at both negotiating platforms," Mammadov.