Iran's tricky message to "appease" Azerbaijan It's not that simple

Caliber.Az reports with reference to the Telegram channel AZfront that on the evening of November 20, the Iranian news agency Tasnim associated with the IRGC published a short and detailed version of the statement of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei's Advisor on Foreign Affairs Ali Akbar Velayati about Azerbaijan. It may appear as a message aiming to normalise relations between the two countries after increasing tension over the last month. The Azerbaijani news agency APA published a short version of the message with extremely soothing sentiments. However, Velayati's statement, especially the longer version, is far from clear-cut.

Appeasing messages

▪️ "In recent weeks some have been ignorantly or deliberately spreading rumors that Iran wants to start a war with Azerbaijan. This is a vile slander against Iran. Tehran does not plan to attack any neighbouring country, especially people of the same race, language, religion, customs, history, i.e. the Azerbaijani people are the light of our eyes."

▪️ "If one day Azerbaijan is attacked by another state, Iran will be its (Azerbaijan's) supporter."

▪️ "Although there is a division between us and the Azerbaijanis living north of Araz, we are not trying to erase the borders and take any place."

Ambiguous and provocative messages

▪️ "Azerbaijan was, is, and will be an important part of Iran... Every Azerbaijani is an Iranian and every Iranian is an Azerbaijani, even if that Azerbaijani and the Iranian are outside Iran and have a different passport."

▪️ The prominent Azerbaijani poet Nizami Ganjavi is described in the statement as a "great Persian poet"; it is also noted that the Azerbaijanis fought the Russians under the leadership of the Persian heir apparent.

▪️ The message replicates Tehran's stance against the Zangazur corridor, clearly voiced by Iran's foreign minister during a recent visit to Armenia. "If any of the regional countries want to violate security in northwest Iran by trespassing, we will definitely oppose it and prevent it," is already an implicit threat to Baku. It is noted that Iran will oppose "any illegal change" of borders, "even if it is one or more of our neighbours".

▪️ The statement mentions "Zionists" (i.e. Israel) four times. They are accused of attempts to interfere in the affairs of the region and various threats are voiced half-explicitly or half-hinted at them. It looks like an outright provocation amid the Azerbaijani parliament's decision to open an embassy in Israel.

In addition to Israel, the statement contains two attacks against Turks. The Turkish Daily Sabah is accused of inciting Iranian Azerbaijanis in favour of Baku. Moreover, the Turks are compared to the Zionists. Allegedly they "attacked" the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan in 1918. The Turks allegedly "wanted to occupy Azerbaijan, even at the cost of displacing its main inhabitants". "A fierce war broke out between the Ottoman forces and the Azerbaijanis...", the statement claims, which is completely contrary to historical facts.

The message is not just for Azerbaijan

As the content and veiled messages suggest, this message is directed not only to official Baku but also to the people of South Azerbaijan, who have been massively opposed to the Iranian regime for the past two months. Velayati stresses the centuries-old closeness of the two peoples, while not forgetting to note the traditional supremacy of the Persians. But now "our country is led by great Azerbaijanis" while ordinary Iranian Azerbaijanis are allegedly being incited against the regime by the Turks.