No new war ahead: Armenian intel points to peace momentum with Azerbaijan

Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service has assessed the prospect of a military escalation with Azerbaijan in 2026 as “almost impossible,” according to its latest annual report.

As reported by Caliber.Az, citing Armenian media, the agency notes that the risk of renewed tensions has declined markedly following the Washington agreements and the initialling of a peace treaty on August 8, 2025. The report also deems local clashes unlikely and expresses optimism about the unblocking of regional transport and communication links.

The peace framework was agreed at a landmark summit in Washington on August 8, 2025, where Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reached an understanding with the mediation of US President Donald Trump. During the meeting, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia initialled a 17-article agreement, described as a major step toward a comprehensive and final peace deal.

A central component of the agreement is the proposal to establish a strategic transport corridor known as the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP). The corridor is set to run through Armenian territory and connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave.

The initiative addresses one of the most sensitive issues in the peace process: it provides Baku with direct connectivity between its territories without dependence on complex transit routes or third countries, while enabling Yerevan to avoid territorial concessions that could create problematic precedents under international law.

By Tamilla Hasanova