Reuters: Russia’s oil, gas revenues for Jan-May to remain below last year’s levels

Russia’s oil and gas revenues, a key source of federal budget income, are expected to rise in May due to higher global oil prices driven by the Iran conflict, but are projected to remain lower overall for the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period last year, according to Reuters calculations.

Oil and gas tax revenues are forecast to reach around 650 billion roubles ($8.65 billion) in May, up from 512.7 billion roubles ($6.82 billion) in the same month of 2025, based on preliminary production data and oil price estimates.

Russia has been among the countries benefiting in the short term from the Middle East conflict, which has contributed to disruptions in global energy flows, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for around one-fifth of global oil supplies and other essential goods such as fertilisers.

However, these gains have been partially offset by constraints on domestic production, as Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure have limited output from the world’s third-largest oil producer after the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Reuters calculations also show that Russia’s oil and gas budget revenues for January to May 2026 are likely to exceed 2.94 trillion roubles ($39.16 billion), compared with 3.16 trillion roubles ($42.07 billion) in the same period of 2025. The decline is attributed to weaker oil prices earlier in the year, before the escalation of the conflict involving U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, as well as the impact of a stronger rouble, which has reduced export earnings in local currency terms.

According to Russia’s finance ministry, the federal budget recorded a deficit of 4.58 trillion roubles ($60.9 billion) in the January–March 2026 period, equivalent to 1.9% of gross domestic product.

By Sabina Mammadli