"St. Petersburg as a continuation of Sochi..." Farhad Mammadov comments on the outcomes of CIS summit

Farhad Mammadov, political analyst and head of the South Caucasus Research Centre, commented in his Telegram channel on the results of the informal CIS summit in St. Petersburg.

"The CIS summit came to an end... And it seems to have ended with nothing. In principle, so did the summit in Sochi. Not only the trilateral meeting did not take place, but there were no public bilateral meetings. Publicity in this case is important, first of all for the leader of Russia.

It can be assumed that Russia does not want to solve the crisis on the Lachin road in a bilateral format with Azerbaijan, trying its best to maintain a trilateral format on Karabakh-related issues as well. As the processes show, there is not enough strength either "on the ground" or in the diplomatic arena.

Azerbaijan and Armenia easily refuse Russia, which brings the processes to a crisis point.

At the same time, the secretary of the Armenian Security Council, in an interview with the American Radio Liberty, gave away all of Russia's expectations from Armenia:

- Joining the Union State;

- Refusal of military assistance until they join the Union State;

- Abandonment of the Zangazur corridor in its original version.

What does this mean?

So, the Karabakh issue, i.e. Armenia's territorial claim against Azerbaijan, is still limiting Armenia's foreign policy. Pashinyan has tried for two years to shed this constraint, but his entourage, represented by the same secretary of the Security Council, a native of Karabakh, persuades the PM not to give up Karabakh, creating the belief that time is working for them - in short, "the West is with us"!

Russia, for its part, is convinced it can restart the processes with its exclusive involvement. The idea is delusional, but not surprising. It is already a trend.

Azerbaijan is ready for any scenario: both Russian and post-Russian. The Russian variant assumes an unobstructed Zangazur corridor under Russian control and the Lachin corridor as well, but for five years, two of which have already passed.

The post-Russian, or Western, option implies an increase in Azerbaijan's and Armenia's subjectivity, primarily that of Armenia on its territory. However, Armenia has to give up the constraint of its claims on Karabakh.

Over these two years, the situation 'on the ground' has changed, and not in Armenia's favour. Strangely, the Armenian leadership is again choosing the pigeon on the roof rather than a sparrow in the hand.

Pashinyan's government is fumbling and its claim of peace is being shattered by the Secretary of Armenia's Security Council Grigoryan's speculation on President Ilham Aliyev's words on the subject of Azerbaijan's historical territories and the return of Western Azerbaijanis to their historical lands. This is not yet a territorial claim, but an assurance that in case of peace Azerbaijanis will be able to visit their homelands, cemeteries, and cultural heritage.

Or does Grigoryan imply an era of peace in a different way?! Without travel and open borders?! Or is the era of peace only in words?! After all, this is a Freudian inference! Grigoryan and the like still carry a territorial claim!

And on the subject of comparisons to Hitler. The son of a crazy felo-de-se from Karabakh crosses the red line. Grigoryan loses his function in the negotiations and the Hajiyev-Grigoryan format may be reconsidered.

And the Lachin standoff continues... Turbulence continues. But one must understand that turbulence does not mean loss of flight altitude, it is only air pits that are overcome and the aircraft continues its way at the same altitude!" Mammadov wrote.