"Yes, that's what the winners say" Kommersant about Aliyev's speech in Sochi

On October 31, the Russian, Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders met at Sochi's Rus boarding house. Kommersant's special correspondent Andrei Kolesnikov states: they have achieved not more than they could, but less. But no less than they could.

Sochi was blanketed with heavy clouds in the morning and, as a result, with rain - everything is the same as in Moscow, only at plus 12 degrees Celsius. The city seems to wince from this weather, and it seems to be getting dark in the morning, and immediately it seems that everything is going wrong. But it's worth watching some videos of Moscow in the morning, and those who are in Sochi feel lighter, and most importantly, warmer.

On this day, [Armenian Prime Minister] Nikol Pashinyan from sunny Armenia and [Azerbaijani President] Ilham Aliyev from sunny Azerbaijan should have felt warmer and brighter. They came to Sochi for trilateral talks.

Their delegations were arranged in different ways. Prime Minister Pashinyan has an extremely compact one (apparently, he relies primarily on himself in everything. Isn't that why there are such problems?). Even journalists - three people. Only personal press: photographer, cameraman and sound engineer. Why a sound engineer is needed in such a situation is not clear at all: anyway, the sound in the protocol part is provided by Russian specialists, and everything except, that is, one picture, is in silence, this is the so-called "mute". The Azerbaijani pool had 14 journalists as a result of a compromise between the Russian and Azerbaijani press services; the pool was reduced, but the Azerbaijanis demanded more, even more.

By the way, this is how wars are won, including information wars. Which are not "including", but "first of all".

However, Pashinyan assumed preparatory offensive combat work before these negotiations. That is, he convened an extraordinary session of the Council of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem three days before, using the available option. As you know, Armenia, unlike Azerbaijan, is a CSTO member.

But all his efforts in this direction were dashed by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko's talkativeness. The cult Telegram channel "Pool of the First" demonstrated that the Belarus president is in the necessary form. Moreover, it seems that the Telegram channel enjoyed this form, that is, the way Alexander Lukashenko publicly, albeit in a closed part of the meeting, chastised Nikol Pashinyan:

- You have asked us two questions. First, I read: "Assessment of events and the position of the CSTO"! Did you demand that we decide on our position? Don't you know our position?! - Mr Lukashenko exclaimed indignantly from his office in Minsk, sitting at a round table surrounded by his entourage (the meeting took place in a video conference mode. - A. K.). - We want the conflict to be settled peacefully between neighbouring states!

Nikol Pashinyan, of course, had the idea to attract all the CSTO countries to his side. There is, after all, the CSTO charter, there is a story with Kazakhstan, when everyone got up, and gathered overnight, and dashed off… And even an Armenian platoon…

But now it was different.

And the Belarus president continued to chastise his colleague:

- The second question: give a roadmap for the restoration of Armenia's territorial integrity! What kind of a "road map"?! I will answer you right away (that is, there is no need for any meeting on this matter — A. K.): sit down with Ilham Aliyev, if necessary, ask the Russian president and make a decision! If you don't accept it today, it will be worse, you understand it yourself, we don't need this conflict! Here you have raised two questions. They're more than weird!

Alexander Lukashenko echoed Vladimir Putin, who commented on Armenia's position more deliberately at the plenary session of the Valdai Forum when he spoke about the very beginning of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Then Armenia could still lose less than it lost later, Vladimir Putin made it clear directly.

This is not the first time Alexander Lukashenko has spoken out about issues that Vladimir Putin has been forced to remain silent on. In general, this is an interesting story: Alexander Lukashenko becomes Vladimir Putin's voice. More specifically, the external voice of Alexander Lukashenko becomes the voice of the internal Vladimir Putin.

- In the end… I will support the agreed decision of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia! - Alexander Lukashenko continued on the video conference call. - You will achieve it - and I will support this unanimous opinion without looking… I am already saying so comradely: guys, what are you fighting for in these mountains 2,000 kilometres high (so Alexander Lukashenko has never overestimated the figures in his life.— A. K.)?! Killed 300 people! A total of 300 people died where people don't live! Where even these... goats don't go! What are you fighting for?! Sit down together and agree! And may Russia sanctify this treaty! But you don't want to! Some kind of, you know, there is a game going on here! This game cannot be, because the issue of war and peace is being resolved!

Now Armenia and Azerbaijan have met in Sochi. And Russia had a chance to consecrate. But some kind of game, most likely, would have broken this fast plan. In any case, there was no need to think about signing a peace treaty in Sochi yet.

Moreover, even before the start of negotiations in Sochi, it became clear to everyone, and most importantly to Nikol Pashinyan: the CSTO is not an assistant to Nikol Pashinyan.

- It's not like on the one hand the CSTO and we are members of the CSTO… And on the other - Azerbaijan! - Mr Lukashenko explained as clearly as possible.— These are our friendly two countries. Moreover, we are members of the CIS together with Azerbaijan! We have very close ties… I confirm what President Putin said: both Armenia and Azerbaijan are our native states (do both Armenia and Azerbaijan think the same? — A. K.)! To put the question like this: on the one hand - the CSTO, and on the other hand — Azerbaijan - it is impossible! This is wrong!

Alexander Lukashenko, as always, allowed himself too much at the meeting of the CSTO leaders:

- Azerbaijan is led today by absolutely our man — Ilham Aliyev! What will happen tomorrow? He's not eternal! Nobody knows (Nikol Pashinyan, looking up from his pencil and notebook, where he was trying to write down the thoughts of Alexander Lukashenko, looked at his colleague, it seemed, with some hope.— A. K.) ... And these acute issues really need to be resolved now! Whoever stands behind Azerbaijan!.. They say Türkiye… So what? This is politics! — the Belarus president taught his Armenian colleague.

Without a doubt, even Nikol Pashinyan eventually realised that he would have to fight in Sochi, that is, negotiate with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev without the help of the CSTO. Especially considering that Mr Putin has been silent all this time, that is, apparently, he fully agreed with his Belarusian counterpart.

The Sochi conference began with a bilateral meeting of the Armenian and Russian leaders.

- I apologise for the autumn weather, - Vladimir Putin apologised, and it was surprising because he usually does not do this. Especially to apologise for other people's mistakes... - But there's nothing you can do, autumn is autumn.

He recalled twice in one minute that the meeting was organised at Pashinyan's suggestion.

- Quite recently, on your own initiative, an online meeting was held at the level of the heads of the CSTO states, and now Mr Putin has not found it necessary to hide who exactly is asking for all these events. - This conflict has been going on for decades, so we need to end it sometime, I agree with this (will the United States and China ever say so, for example, about Russia and Ukraine? - A. K.).

Pashinyan turned out to be much more eloquent, although at the same time he read the text from the leaves prepared for him. But he may not stop for hours. But it was today that he was afraid, obviously, to say something wrong. Or something not to say.

And the accents made an impression.

- Last week at the Valdai Discussion Club, - the Armenian prime minister said, - you raised the issue of a possible peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, claiming (that is, he admitted that in fact, it could not be so. - A. K.) that you support the choice of those principles in favour of which Armenia will express itself.

Nikol Pashinyan did not, of course, detail that the Russian president spoke about this almost with irony. At that time, he recalled that Armenia could have received two large districts of Nagorno-Karabakh if it had agreed to it at the beginning of a military clash with Azerbaijan. But even then Russia supported the free choice of Armenia, which refused such a development of events, and now it will also support it. The hint, of course, was that Armenia has a chance to lose the rest of Nagorno-Karabakh.

- The approaches proposed by the Russian draft of the basic principles and parameters for the establishment of interstate relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia are acceptable to us, - the Armenian prime minister focused on the correct pronunciation of the title of the document, - the Russian draft of the basic principles and parameters for the establishment of interstate relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia. I hope that you will support the proposals to refer to this document in the text of today's [October 31] possible trilateral statement… Armenia has proposed it, but so far we have no confirmation that the Russian side supports it.

On the one hand, Nikol Pashinyan clearly put pressure on his Russian counterpart, and it was strange: if he really wanted to achieve something, he should not have given ultimatums and dictated what Russia should support. On the other hand, Nikol Pashinyan still got confused in his speech. At first, he said that it was a draft of the Russian version of the document, and then he began to claim that he had no confirmation that Russia supports this, that is, its own version.

Or was it about an option that has long lost its relevance due to the fact that Armenia has already neglected it at one time?

- I want to emphasise, - Nikol Pashinyan continued, - that this does not contradict in any way the agreements that were reached in Prague on October 6 this year (that is, without Russia's participation. — A. K.), by the way, during the Prague talks I was guided by your statements, including on Nagorno-Karabakh!