Against whom has Iran deployed its troops? Farhad Mammadov's standpoint

Political scientist and head of the South Caucasus Research Centre Farhad Mammadov in his Telegram channel analysed the military exercises of the Ground Forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran that started today on the border with Azerbaijan.

"The IRGC is conducting exercises on the border of Azerbaijan and Armenia – in the north of the East Azerbaijan province of Iran (bordering the Ordubad region of NAR AR, the entire Iranian-Armenian border, the Zangilan region of Azerbaijan). It is planned to involve up to 50 thousand military personnel, the use of drones, the establishment of pontoon crossings across the Araz River, the use of artillery…

The figures show that these are offensive exercises, not defensive in any way. As can be seen from the location of the exercises, the possibility of an attack on Azerbaijan or Armenia is being worked out. Hypothetically, let's consider both cases:

Attack on Azerbaijan:

The area from Zangilan to Fuzuli is unpopulated, but the most militarised... The situation is different in Nakhchivan - the area is populated, but also militarised... So, it will be difficult for the Iranian Armed Forces to advance. Strikes on oil infrastructure near Baku, and strikes on other parts of the border are possible... One thing is clear: Azerbaijan will withstand the strikes and is able to resist the entire length of the border... The weapons and personnel of the armed forces have been tested... Having destroyed the entire Armenian military infrastructure in Karabakh, there is nothing to leave any paramilitary units in the rear...

What do we have to respond to?

- The rise of Azerbaijanis in Iran, i.e. working behind enemy lines, will be systematic. This is not like the Iranian proxies in Azerbaijan who will be neutralized within 24 hours. These are the masses, tens and hundreds of thousands of people... No tales of "Zionist Satanists" will work...

- Within 24 hours, Türkiye will join the war, along the entire length of the Iranian-Turkish border and by entering the NAR. The reunification of Nakhchivan with the main territory of Azerbaijan will already become an existential necessity...

- UK support will be at the diplomatic level in the UNSC and through the provision of arms.

- There will be no problem with logistics - Georgia will support Azerbaijan by opening up its airspace.

- Israel will not miss an opportunity to strike Iran's critical infrastructure using Azerbaijan's airspace. In the case of open aggression, Baku will provide Israel with something it has not provided for 30 years...

- Perhaps Saudi Arabia and Pakistan can join them - well, they can gather troops near the borders and distract Iranian forces.

This is just a glimpse of the first week... That is, aggression against Azerbaijan will be reciprocated by at least a coalition of states located on the borders of Iran... This is important, believe me...

An attack on Armenia... Or let's say an invasion of Armenian territory.

With Russia's limited resources, Armenia is attempting to drift toward the West. Thereby changing the geopolitical balance in the region. Within the last month, Iran has rushed to back Russia in Ukraine and is going to back it in the South Caucasus. No confidence in Pashinyan, the latter's attitude towards Russia speaks volumes for the Iranian leadership, too. The topic of Western forces appearing on Iran's borders brings the mullahcracy of the IRI into play.

At the same time, there are Russian border guards on the border with Iran, who may even help Iran to cross the border and settle in Zangazur. All this can happen in case of internal instability in Armenia. It is not incidental that Kocharyan curtseyed towards Tehran in his last speech. Internal instability in Armenia can be stirred up by pro-Russian proxies with a limited Russian contingent.

Who will be in charge of Armenia in the event of an Iranian attack? The question is rhetorical.

Conclusion

Iran's show of force is an indicator of the weakness of all other forms of influence in the region. Iran is an absolutely unattractive state for the region, even for Armenia... I will leave the choice of the invasion direction to the readers, I will only note the level of consequences, which the Iranian leadership will face", Farhad Mammadov wrote.